Will Iran step back? The West hopes so, but the region doubts it
For days now, who will respond, when, and how has been part of daily conversation for those living in the Middle East, as it has been in the offices of power around the world.
Each day brings multiple theories as to whether or not there will be a state to state retaliation from Iran on Israel or whether a proxy war - already at play - is about to hit a whole new level.
Today, Western sources tell me Iran’s leadership may be considering leaving any retaliation to Lebanon-based Hezbollah and other proxies in the region and thus, not repeating April’s direct strike on Israel.
However, those in the region say they don’t think that is Iran’s position. Why does this matter?
Well, if the Western assessment plays out in reality, it is significant.
If Iran is considering delegating the responsibility of response to Hezbollah, it reduces the risk of massive escalation through a state on state attack.
A Hezbollah attack - likely supported by the Houthis and others - would still be a very big deal but marginally less inflammatory than one from Tehran itself.
What comes next very much depends on what form any retaliation takes, its consequences and Israel’s response.
My Western sources suggest Iran is listening to messages of de-escalation being sent directly and indirectly over the past days and repeating them back with the warning they are not the risk to this crisis that Israel is.
However other sources, closer to Iran, deny this is the case. They say Iran will respond state on state and is honour-bound to after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on their soil.
What’s more, the decision to respond comes from the very top - the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has decreed it and that therefore is incontrovertible.
While intense diplomatic efforts to descalate continue, overnight the US, Qatar and Egypt have proposed a “final” ceasefire proposal to be discussed with Israel and Hamas on Thursday.
Israel has agreed to send a delegation, those closer to Tehran fear it is stalling tactic.
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A regional source, with close ties to Iran, told me this morning “Why should the American’s be trusted? Why is it in a week, is this just to gain time?
"If there’s will it should start immediately. The Axis of Resistance never connect the talks with the retaliation, only an actual ceasefire can stop the escalation.”
And so the speculation will continue - until someone does take the decision to retaliate or a peace deal for Gaza can be agreed.
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