Why a tension-easing Gaza ceasefire is out of reach thanks to Knesset radicals

The Middle East - and countries with vested interests in the region - are being held ransom by two ultra right-wing and messianic parties in Israel's parliament, the Knesset.

Both hold just 14 of 120 seats, but those 14 MKs (members of the Knesset) give Benjamin Netanyahu his ruling majority.And it seems he will defy not just the majority of Israelis, but President Biden, to keep them on board.

Because of the proportional representation voting system, Israel’s governments are always coalitions.

Reaching a majority of 61 seats or more often means enlisting the support of small parties, who then enjoy a level of influence that is way beyond their electoral clout.

Put simply, the tail often gets to wag the dog.

With this region staring down the barrel of all-out war this really matters right now.

The two Jewish supremacist parties to which I refer - Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP) - are opposed to any negotiated deal with Hamas.

They are also committed to re-occupying Gaza, want to weaken the Palestinian Authority to bury any prospect of a Palestinian state, and want to annex all of the West Bank.

In accordance with their wishes, Netanyahu hasn’t come up with any post-war plan for the governance of Gaza beyond Israeli military occupation and hasn’t reached a ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

The cure-all for the Sword of Damocles hanging over this region is obviously a ceasefire in Gaza, since both Hezbollah and the Houthis have said they will stop when the fighting on the Strip does.

But the two radical parties have warned Netanyahu that if there’s a truce with Hamas they will topple the government.

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That will allow the prosecution of Netanyahu on corruption charges to resume, and will be the starting gun for his reckoning when it comes to his failure to prevent Oct 7, spelling the end of his political career.

So Netanyahu’s personal political interests would not be served by a ceasefire that Joe Biden in particular has invested much capital in for zero gain.

It now appears to be dawning on the American president that the Israeli Prime Minister has been stringing him along for months - telling him he wants a ceasefire agreement while at the same time making sure it never comes to pass.

But Netanyahu has always known that he has America’s "ironclad" security guarantee in his back pocket.

And now, again, the US military finds itself getting ready to defend Israel, while at the same time, this country’s prime minister is standing in the way of the one thing that would bring the crisis to an end.

As it showed the last time Iran sent hundreds of missiles this way, the US military does have a lot of influence.

Joe Biden, on the other hand? Not so much.

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