From convicted felon, to almost assassinated: Have Trump's election chances survived?
By Olivia Mustafa, ITV News Producer
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump on July 13 sent shockwaves across the world.
As images of the former US president clutching his bloodied face flooded social media feeds and news coverage, what unfolded was to become a pivotal moment in shaping the race for the White House.
But this isn't the only recent incident of historical proportions involving Donald Trump.
The Republican frontrunner became the first former president to become a convicted felon, after a jury delivered a guilty verdict in his landmark hush-money trial on May 30.
He faces at least two other sets of charges, two of which could go to trial. Despite all of this, Trump has consistently led over Biden in CNN's presidential polling this year.
Things have not been plain sailing for the current president, either. Biden is facing growing calls to pull out of the race following a series of gaffes - including where he mistakenly called Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy "President Putin".
ITV News takes a look at how key moments from across the past year have shaped people's opinions on Trump, and the impact they could have on his candidacy as the November 5 election edges closer.
A wave of indictments - and a historic mug shot
2023 was the year Trump found himself indicted on counts relating to four separate criminal cases.
The first came in March, where he was charged with falsifying business records in the first degree over an incident that saw him make an alleged hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels, an adult film star, in the lead-up to the 2016 election.
A few months later, in June 2023, a federal grand jury in Miami indicted him for for taking classified national defence documents from the White House. The charges saw the FBI raid Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate as part of the probe.
ITV News' US correspondent Dan Rivers reported on new charges emerging in the classified documents case in 2023.
A third indictment came in early August, where Trump faced charges of attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election results, where he lost to Joe Biden.
Just weeks later - on August 14 - an Atlanta-based grand jury on August indicted him for his alleged efforts to overturn the former president’s 2020 electoral defeat in Georgia.
Trump was arrested for these charges inside an Atlanta jail, where his mug shot was taken - a photo which came to define the former president's new status as a suspected criminal.
After his convictions were announced, Trump's staunchest supporters began to repeat his claims there was a "witch hunt" taking place against the former president.
He widened his polling lead over the rest of the Republicans since his first criminal charges were announced, and his campaign reported a fundraising boost following his indictments.
After Trump's arrest, the campaign said it had made nearly $3 million from mug shot merchandise alone.
ITV News spoke to Dr Thomas Gift, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Centre on US Politics, at University College London. He said the criminal cases have only emboldened those who back Trump.
"They certainly galvanised support among his Republican base - that was true with each successive indictment that he had," he said.
Guilty over the hush-money scandal
In May, Trump made history as the first-ever former US president to be found guilty of felony crimes.
He was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records, after allegations he made payments to bury stories that might adversely affect his 2016 White House bid.
One of those alleged payments was made to Stormy Daniels who claims she was paid to keep quiet about an affair she had with Trump.
Trump denied the allegations, denouncing the trial as "rigged" and "a disgrace".
As he left the courtroom, he said: "The real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people. And they know what happened here. And everybody knows what happened here."
Trump's idea that he was being unfairly treated by the justice system was somewhat reflected by a CNN poll in April 2024.
It found just 13% nationwide feel Donald Trump is being treated the same as other criminal defendants.
Most of the country was divided over whether he is being treated more harshly (34%) or more leniently (34%) than others going through the US' justice system.
The trial's outcome led to questions of whether Trump could still stand as a convicted felon - or if he could campaign to become president in the unlikely eventuality he was sentenced to prison.
According to the US constitution, there is nothing stopping a convicted criminal from running for president - even if they are in jail.
Watch as ITV News' Correspondent Robert Moore broke the historic verdict.
Despite the drama of the courtroom, and jury's historic decision, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll conducted during the trial showed the outcome wouldn't have much of a sway on the electorate.
As many as 67% of registered voters said that Trump being found guilty would make no difference to their vote.
The figures showed a guilty conviction would only bolster his supporters, with only 7% predicting they would be less likely to vote for him if he were convicted.
Another 24% said a conviction would make them even more likely to vote for him.
Partial immunity, and dropped charges
Despite the former president being handed a record-breaking guilty verdict in the hush-money trial, things have been looking up for him when it comes to two of the other indictments.
In a decision on whether Trump could claim immunity against the criminal charges surrounding his role in the January 1 Capitol riots, the Supreme Court ruled he was entitled to "partial immunity".
The landmark judgement stated former presidents have absolute immunity from being prosecuted for any "official acts" committed in office - but have no immunity for unofficial acts.
Lower courts will now decide whether his involvement in the insurrection on Capitol Hill was an "official" or "unofficial" act - but a trial is unlikely to take place before the presidential election.
The ruling could have a knock-on impact on the rest of the charges Trump is facing, with his legal team reportedly planning to fight the indictments using the Supreme Court's decision.
Elsewhere, the charges relating to Trump's removal of classified documents from the White House was dropped by a federal judge on July 15, meaning he likely will not face trial.
With trials pushed back beyond the election date, or dropped entirely, more of the former President's indictments may fade from the spotlight.
Dr Gift believes their impact would be minimal on Trump's election chances regardless.
"Those court cases will move the needle very little on Trump, simply because he is such a known quantity," he said.
"The first impeachment, the second impeachment, all of the scandals and mini scandals that define the Trump presidency didn't turn off swing voters."
Biden's repeated gaffes
Trump's main political rival, current US president Joe Biden, has also made headlines in recent weeks, with calls mounting for him to stand down.
A disastrous debate performance where a Biden mumbled his way through at times nonsensical points was followed weeks later by an incident where he introduced Ukraine's President Zelenskyy as Russia's Vladimir Putin.
Biden was speaking in Washington at the end of Nato's three-day summit in the US capital
At the same Nato summit, he referred to his own Vice President Kamala Harris as Vice President Donald Trump.
Biden's missteps have drawn calls for him to stand aside, take a cognitive test, with his doctor being forced to say the president "has shown no signs of Parkinson's disease".
The fallout of the debate debacle has shown signs of bolstering support for Trump in the upcoming election.
Registered voters who tuned in largely thought Trump outperformed Biden, according to a CNN poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS.
Most of those surveyed said they had no real confidence in Biden’s ability to lead the country.
Assassination attempt that shook the world
Trump was mid-speech at a rally in Pennsylvania, when shots suddenly rang out through the crowd.
Leapt on by security agents, he disappeared from view, emerging a few minutes later with his fist in the air as the crowd chanted "USA, USA."
Chaos erupts as bangs were heard at Donald Trump's campaign rally
Reflecting on the fallout of the incident, Dr Gift said: "Trump was already close to a deity-like symbol with his base, and I think the attempted assassination only makes him more of a God-like figure."
He said he believed the events to have solidified Trump's lead over Biden.
Dr Gift said: "Everything seems to be clicking right now for Trump. He absolutely has all the momentum and he's clearly in the lead."
"It will make swing and moderate voters more likely to support him, in part simply because of the iconic image of him pumping his fist.
"It's not only the most iconic image of the 2024 campaign, but it's probably one of the most indelible in modern American political history," he added.
From the fallout of the attempted assassination, to his first indictment, and even a guilty verdict, Trump seems unshakeable with some of his support base.
"He has an extremely durable floor of support. Around 30% of the electorate is going to support him no matter what does," Dr Gift said.
"It's going to become a question about whether that's going to be enough in this upcoming election."
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