Pennsylvania: Why is the 'keystone state' one of the US election's main battlegrounds?

Words by Olivia Mustafa, ITV News Producer

As the campaign draws to a close, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are holding their last rallies in Pennsylvania, the northeastern US state that is set to be a key battleground in the race for victory.

It has long been nicknamed the "Keystone State" in a nod to its geographical place at the heart of the country's original Thirteen Colonies, and its political role as the Constitution's birthplace.

It also has a history of being extremely close to call - and of indicating who the future president will be. But why is it such an important state and what issues will this year's vote hinge on?

Not just a battleground - a 'microcosm'

Pennsylvania is often thought of as a smaller representation of the United States, with some describing it as a "microcosm" of the nation.

Mirroring the wider diversity of America, Pennsylvania's large population is its most dense in urban centres to the east and west, with industrial heartlands and a large rural population in between.

Its mix of cities, industry, and swathes of agricultural regions means it has bases of different kinds of voters, with different allegiances and priorities.

Another reason for Pennsylvania's reputation as a key battleground state is its high share of electoral votes.

When Americans take to the polls, they will vote for the electoral college, rather than Trump or Harris. These electors then choose the president and vice-president.

Pennsylvania is allocated 19 state electors - the joint fifth-highest share out of all of the states, meaning it has a big impact on the overall result.

In fact, who claims the state often indicates who will be secure victory the election overall. Of the past 12 elections, 10 of the past winners also won in Pennsylvania.

ITV News' Rebecca Barry reported from Pennsylvania in 2020, where tension was rife amid vote counting.

A history of close calls

In the 2020 election, Joe Biden beat Trump in the state by a single percentage point - with the Democrats securing 50% of votes over the Republicans' 48.8%.

The Democrats have won Pennsylvania in every election since 1992 - a trend bucked only in 2016, where Trump won with 48.2% over Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton's 47.5%.

Despite decades of Democrat dominance, Pennsylvania has historically been a tight race, with election results often on a knife edge.

Ahead of the 2024 election, the same rings true. The most recent FiveThirtyEight poll on November 3 shows Harris winning the state by 48% and Trump 47% of the vote.

Election results in Pennsylvania from 1988 - 2020, by percentage of votes

What issues will this year's vote hinge on?

Harris and Trump's messaging on key issues, such as abortion, economy and immigration, could hold the power to sway undecided voters - and tip the balance in their favour.

Harris has been one of the most visible defender of abortion rights in the Democrat party, even before Biden announced he was dropping out of the race in July.

Trump's statements on abortion have been conflicting. At a recent rally, he announced he would be a "protector" of women, who will "no longer be thinking about abortion" if he becomes president again.

However, he has ruled out a national abortion ban, and said he would not block access to abortion medication.

Despite criticising existing abortion bans for being "too tough", he has said individual states should have the power to decide.

In terms of securing democracy, Trump has repeated baseless claims that the 2020 election results were rigged - which has seen him indicted for attempting to overturn the result.

Pennsylvania was one of five states won by Biden where Trump filed election challenges to officially dispute the results.

The challenges were not accepted, and there is still no evidence for Trump's claims of "illegal votes" being cast.

Meanwhile, immigration was cited as one of the most crucial election topics among over 10% the those polled by CNN in the state.

Harris has focused her stance on immigration around enforcing border security and tackling drug smuggling.

Referring to her time as California's attorney general, Harris has spoken of walking through tunnels used by smugglers, and highlighted success in prosecuting narcotics gangs.

Meanwhile, Trump has promised to launch the largest domestic deportation in US history, echoing promises he made during his 2016 election campaign. During his administration, deportations failed to top the numbers seen under

Obama's presidency.

He has promised to use the National Guard to carry out deportations, and said hundreds of thousands of immigrants who came to the US under two of Biden's schemes will be removed.

Changing demographics

The results of 2024's election in Pennsylvania could also be driven by shifts in the make-up of the state's population.

The state's Hispanic and Latino communities have seen the most substantial growth out of any ethnicity in the state, growing 40% since 2010.

There are now over 600,000 eligible Latino voters in the state.

The city of Reading is 67% Latino. Formerly a hub for the manufacturing of iron and steel, it currently has a Latino mayor for the first time in its 276-year history.

“Right now, with the growing Latino population and the influx of Latinos moving into cities such as Reading, it’s definitely an opportunity for the Latino vote to change the outcome of an election," Mayor Eddie Moran said.

“It's not a secret anymore.”

Political candidates have started to wake up to Reading's political and economic power. While the city leans mostly Democratic, the Trump campaign recently opened a "Latino Americans for Trump" office in the city.

There are concerns the Latino votes have been neglected by the current administration.

Democrat Cynthia Mota, neighbouring Allentown’s first Latina city council president, is worried Latinos in Pennsylvania could be instead swayed towards Trump,

“They have taken things for granted when it comes to the Latino vote,” she said.

Pennsylvania's reputation as a fierce political battleground is already well-established - but this year, communities like Reading's could play a pivotal role in the outcome of the election.

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