Policy 2024: Knife crime is top of the agenda for parties' law and order policy

ITV News Social Affairs Correspondent Sarah Corker looks at how the political parties have said they will tackle law and order in their manifestos

Historically, the Conservatives have positioned themselves as the party of law and order - tough on crime. Partygate eroded that brand.

While Labour is promising to "take back our town centres from thugs and thieves" but what does that actually mean? They’re catchy slogans but tackling crime and its causes is complex.

One thing that struck me reading through the law and order sections of the various party manifestos was the repeated pledge from the Tories, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens to "restore public trust in policing and the criminal justice system".

A clear indication that recent high profile scandals within various police forces - from appalling acts of misconduct to huge failures in vetting procedures - has had a devastating effect on public attitudes and perceptions towards those who are supposed to keep us all safe.

What does the crime data tell us?

Statistics on offending rates can be a disputed area with politicians picking and choosing snapshots which suit their narratives - but arguably the most reliable source of data comes from the ONS Crime Survey for England and Wales.

In 2023, there was a 7% increase in knife crime compared to the year before, with nearly 50,000 offences.

Offending is concentrated in urban areas. Together the Metropolitan Police Force, (29% of all knife crime offences) and West Midlands Police (11%) account for close to half of all recorded knife crime.

Notable increases were seen in the number of knife robberies in England and Wales - up 20% compared with the previous year.

But if we look at the numbers over a longer time frame - knife crime is still 3% lower than before the pandemic in 2020.

The political pledges

Knife crime

Tackling knife crime features to some degree in all the manifestos.

The Conservatives would give police new powers to seize knives and increase sentences for the most serious crimes.

Labour pledge to halve knife crime over the next decade describing it as a "moral mission". They’d increase the penalties for carrying and selling machetes, zombies knives and swords and every young person caught with a knife will be referred to a youth offending team.

While the Lib Dems would take a public health approach to tackling violent crime with early intervention.

Sentencing reform

There are plenty of pledges for tougher sentences for a range of crimes.

One specific commitment in the Conservative manifesto is a promise to increase sentences for domestic murderers to a minimum jail term of 25 years.

Labour didn’t go as far as the Tories, but promised a full review of the sentencing system.

Julie Devey’s daughter, Poppy, was 24 when she was murdered by her ex-boyfriend at their flat in 2018. He inflicted more than 70 knife and stab wounds on Poppy using a kitchen knife. Her killer was jailed for a minimum of 16 years.

Because the knife he used was already in the home – the minimum tariff is 15 years in prison. Had Poppy been stabbed in the street with a knife taken to the scene, the starting point would be 25 years. It’s a ten year difference that the Conservative said they will change.

Ms Devey welcomes the political focus on sentencing but said the pledges don’t go far enough. She told ITV News “Enough is enough. These domestic killers need locking up for longer.”

Ms Devey says she will "not shut up" about longer sentencing for domestic crimes, as she relives the horror of her daughter's murder

A warning this video contains upsetting details

Police numbers

Turning to police numbers, it’s no surprise that parties are promising more bobbies on the beat to the varying degrees.

The Tories would recruit 8,000 more full time police officers over three years. Labour have promised to dedicate 13,000 police officers to tackling neighbourhood crime, although not all of those would be full time positions.

The Lib Dems haven’t set a target, but said they’d focus on community policing and recruiting more detectives. Reform UK want 40,000 new police officers over the next five years.

But training new officers take time and recent scandals within policing have all affected recruitment, retention and morale. A recent survey by the Police Federation suggested 22 per cent of officers intended to resign within the next two years or "as soon as they can".

Anti-social behaviour

Another big concern for voters is anti-social behaviour blighting communities - last year 35 per cent of people said they’d experienced or witnessed some type of anti-social behaviour.

While shoplifting offences have soared by nearly 40 per cent in a year to 430,104 offences compared with 315,040 offences in 2022.

Both of the main parties have previously said there would be a new specific offence for assaults on shop workers.

The Conservatives plan to use hotspot policing in town centres and increased the use of community payback and electronic tagging.

Labour would introduce “respect orders” - a revamped Asbo - to punish persistent offenders and tackle issues like public drinking and drug use.

Lib Dems would invest in youth services and improve community policing and give a legal guarantee that police will properly investigate all burglaries.

Reform UK say they’ll take a zero-tolerance approach to anti-social behaviour

The challenges ahead

Whoever wins the election faces enormous challenges. Courts are understaffed and overwhelmed with cases and long backlogs.

Prisons are almost full. Within days of the election result, prison governors have already warned prisons could soon be so overcrowded that they won’t be able to accept any more inmates.

And beware of the unintended consequences of getting tough on crime - more prosecutions puts more pressure on overstretched courts and prisons. So where will offenders go?

Where’s the money going to come from? How will the next government cut crime and build much needed new prisons if there are limited extra resources?

A final thought. It's important to say that crime has broadly fallen over last two decades - you can see since the mid 90s they’ve been long term falls

But that’s not been matched by public perception that we live in a safer society. That’s why politicians are so desperate to tell voters that they will restore faith in the criminal justice system.

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