Labour and the Tories have pledged to bring down national debt - but do their plans add up?

ITV News Business and Economics Editor Joel Hills sets out what those promising to cut national debt after the General Election are up against

Everywhere you look, public services are visibly under strain.

The number people waiting for 12 hours or more in A&E in England has surged from 40,000 a month to more than 130,000 in the last five years. The backlog of unheard court cases has trebled to 95,000 in the same timeframe.

The number of adults receiving social care has fallen slightly to 835,000 despite demand for care exploding.

Whoever forms the next government would love to have money to throw at these problems - but money couldn't be tighter.

National debt as a share of national income has risen to the highest level in 70 years, not least because of the money borrowed to support households and businesses during the pandemic and the energy price shock.

Interest rates have risen too: the government spent £100 billion last year servicing debt; before Covid, that figure was closer to £40 billion.

The outlook for economic growth is weak, with average growth of 1.6% a year forecast in the next parliament, and tax revenues have already risen by a record amount in the last four years.

Both Labour and the Tories have pledged to get national debt falling if they win the election, and both parties have also told us they won’t raise any of the major taxes - NI, income tax and VAT - in the next parliament.

But these pledges will be hard to keep.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has calculated the next government will have to make between £30 and £40 billion of annual spending cuts.

These cuts will hit investment spending to build schools and hospitals, and spending on day-to-day public services.

Spending on areas like the NHS, schools, defence and childcare is likely to be protected - which leaves unprotected areas vulnerable.

Councils have already gone bust, prisons are full, courts are clogged with cases and universities are increasingly struggling - and no party has told us where cuts can be made.

Instead, the hope appears to be that whoever forms the next government will suddenly be dealt a set of aces.

These could be a slump in the price of oil and gas, big cuts in interest rates, an economic boom - the discovery of vast reserves of lithium in Scotland, perhaps.

The next government may get incredibly lucky. But if these things don’t happen, then voters are in for an unpleasant surprise after the election.

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