Local election results suggest Starmer on track to become next prime minister

By ITV News Election Analyst, Colin Rallings

So far, so bad for the Conservatives.

Their defeat in the Blackpool South contest was the fifth occasion in the past 12 months that they have lost a Westminster by-election with a direct swing to Labour of over 20%.

The result was widely anticipated, but little credence should be given to the fact they did manage to finish second (just). Their share of the vote collapsed by over 30 points (admittedly on a low turnout with fewer than a third of elector participating), but that was to the almost equal benefit of Labour and Reform.

Reform’s success in polling 17% of the vote will send particular shudders through Conservative headquarters though.

Even if the party won no more than one in 10 votes at the general election that would directly lead to the Conservatives losing more constituencies than from a straight swing to Labour alone. And, as in Blackpool South, it would not be Reform returning MPs; instead, they’d be making things easier for Labour.

Neither do the local elections make happy reading for the Conservatives.

Losing councillors was always inevitable given that most of the seats falling vacant yesterday were last fought in 2021 when the party was riding high in the polls. But there was little sign they have managed to reset the local dial and close the gap with Labour.

In 2023 they lost half of the seats they were trying to defend; at this early stage it looks likely that unenviable feat will be repeated. A final tally of about 500 losses would be at the top end of Conservative fears before the election, and it is of little comfort that Labour was not the only beneficiary of their plight.

Winning Blackpool South was Labour’s primary goal, but the party knows that in order to win the general election by a majority it needs to move beyond simply winning back such seats in the ‘red wall’ lost in 2019.

Instead it must target constituencies held between 1997 and 2010 in the Blair/Brown era when parts of southern England and the midlands were firmly in the Labour column. Gaining control of Adur (Shoreham), Nuneaton, Redditch, and of Rushmoor (Aldershot) directly from the Conservatives and of Milton Keynes and Thurrock from no overall control sends out that message, but a narrow failure to win Harlow shows that not everything went Labour’s way.

There are also signs of Labour suffering in some parts of the country (Lancashire in particular) with a high Muslim population. It lost control of Oldham and has been wiped out in Pendle. However, in Rochdale (scene of George Galloway’s recent by-election victory) Labour remained solid taking 14 seats with the Workers’ party being successful in just two.

Remember too these are local elections in which local issues often play a part, and that some voters make different choices at national and local level.

A rubbish collection strike in South Tyneside, controversy over tree felling in Plymouth and Sheffield, or local residents forming their own tightly focused ‘party’ all have the power to energise electors away from the traditional parties.

Personality can be important too. Ben Houchen retained the Tees Valley mayoralty following a campaign which made little mention of his Conservative label; Andy Street could well win the West Midlands tomorrow benefiting from his reputation as the two-term incumbent. Conservative candidates in the newly created Combined Authorities of East Midlands, and York & North Yorkshire did not have that advantage and succumbed to the national swing.

But be in no doubt. Although Labour’s local performance looks on the face of it rather less dramatic than the Blackpool by-election or their recent opinion poll leads, it is Keir Starmer’s’ party which has most to be pleased about. Taken together, the results do suggest that Keir Starmer is on course to be the next prime minister.

Whether that is as leader of the largest party in the House of Commons or in presiding over a clear working majority is still to be determined though.

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