What happens next as Yousaf faces no-confidence vote at Holyrood?

First Minister Humza Yousaf is facing a vote of no confidence at Holyrood following the collapse of the powersharing deal between the SNP and Scottish Greens.

Mr Yousaf has cancelled a planned speech at Strathclyde University as he battles for his leadership position, raising the question of what happens next and how a possible no confidence vote would work.

Where does a no-confidence vote come from?

A no-confidence vote is used to express the fact members of the Scottish Parliament have lost faith in a government minister.

In this case a motion would be tabled that says Humza Yousaf is unfit to be first minister, and members would then vote on that motion.

How many votes does Humza Yousaf need to win?

He would simply need to secure the support of a majority of MSPs.

If everyone takes part in the vote – and sometimes MSPs might not be able to because of ill health or other reasons – Mr Yousaf would need at least 64 of the 129 MSPs to vote for him.

As presiding officer, Alison Johnstone traditionally does not vote.

She would only vote if there is a tie, and by convention the presiding officer uses their vote to support the status quo – so would back the first minister.

How is the vote likely to go?

The SNP has 63 MSPs, leaving Mr Yousaf one short of the minimum tally he needs to reach.

As a result, attention is focused on how Alba Party MSP Ash Regan – who quit the SNP last year – will cast her ballot.

Ms Regan wrote to the first minister on Friday saying that Scotland “deserves and demands a reset”, as posted on X.

When she defected, Mr Yousaf described the move as “no great loss”, but she could now play a key role in determining his future.

What happens if Humza Yousaf loses? While the result of the ballot could not compel the first minister to quit, realistically it would prove almost impossible for him to stay in post if he did not have the confidence of the majority of MSPs.

However the resignation of the first minister would not automatically trigger a Holyrood election.

Under Scottish Parliament rules, if a first minister steps down MSPs have 28 days in which to elect a replacement.

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This means that if Mr Yousaf was to quit, the SNP may seek to have a replacement leader installed in the post, assuming they could win enough support to be voted into the post at Holyrood.

What happens if he wins?

If Mr Yousaf wins the vote of no confidence, the first minister would of course be able to stay on in the post but if he was to only secure a narrow victory in such a ballot, his leadership could be left weakened.

When will the vote be held?

No date has been set for the vote, but the motion calling for it has been submitted by the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour.

The Conservative motion reads: “The Parliament has no confidence in the First Minister in light of his failures in Government.”

Meanwhile Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said: “It’s a matter now of when, not if, Humza Yousaf will step down as First Minister.”

It is likely Parliament business managers will meet on Tuesday to set a date for the debate and vote on the motion.

The expectation at Holyrood is that a vote could be held at some point next week.

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