By-election wins show Labour’s poll lead is very real as Reform UK convert political noise to votes

Conservative Party candidate Helen Harrison listens the Labour Party candidate Gen Kitchen give her speech after being declared winner in the Wellingborough by-election at the Kettering Leisure Village, Northamptonshire.
Conservative Party candidate Helen Harrison listens the Labour Party candidate Gen Kitchen give her speech after being declared winner in the Wellingborough by-election at the Kettering leisure village. Credit: PA

These are devastating results for the Conservative Party. They are thumping wins for Labour. And they are very good performances by the Reform Party.

The Tory vote in both seats has collapsed. In Wellingborough, the Conservative vote share fell by -37.6%, the second biggest drop for any party since WWII. In Kingswood, the vote share was down more than 20%.

The Conservatives have now lost ten by-elections in this parliament - more than any government since the 1960s.

We’ve got used to Labour overturning huge Conservative majorities in recent months. In Wellingborough (18,540) and Kingswood (11,220) the target for Labour was smaller than it’s been at other by-elections.

But these wins show that Labour’s polling lead is very real, they show the party is able to pick up the seats it needs to if it is to win a general election, and they provide much needed political momentum.

Damien Egan won Kingswood for Labour on a bad night for the Conservatives Credit: centre

Reform UK will be delighted with their third-place finishes in both by-elections. In Kingswood their vote share (10.4%) has matched their national polling average and in Wellingborough their vote share (13%) has exceeded it.

It proves they can turn the political noise they make into real votes. Their performances will worry Tory MPs who fear they are suppressing the Conservative vote.

The Conservatives will console themselves by arguing their voters stayed at home, evidenced by the low turnout.

And they will point to the unique circumstances of these by-elections, especially in Wellingborough where the Tory candidate was the partner of ousted MP Peter Bone. But outside polling stations in Wellingborough we met former Tory voters switching to both Labour and Reform UK.

These two by-elections will be among the last before an expected general election later this year. Rishi Sunak is fast running out of time to turn things around.

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