Taiwan's presidential election is the choice between 'war and peace'

Peace or War? That is the question that apparently faces the people of Taiwan as they head into a presidential election. Asia Editor Debi Edward breaks down this monumental moment for one of the world's youngest democracies

This is my first time in Taiwan for an election and as we have toured around the capital spotting billboards for the various candidates, watching noisy campaign floats drive-by and filmed thousands of people gather for election rallies, I couldn’t help but feel this is what China might look like, without the Communist Party in charge.

It was pointed out that Taiwan with a population of 23.5 million is the only place in the Chinese-speaking world where people have the right to vote.

There are 1.4 billion citizens in the People’s Republic of China who have never had their say on who they want to be president.

They didn’t get a choice when in 2018, President Xi Jinping removed term limits and made himself president for life.

China and Taiwan are culturally similar, they share a language and traditions, they are physically close - at some points just miles apart - but politically they are like different planets.

Taiwan (the Republic of China) is a young democracy. This is only its 8th presidential election; the country held its first elections in 1996.

It has quickly become one of the most vibrant and diverse democracies in Asia, each poll regularly attracts a high turnout.

In 2020 when the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a landslide majority, turnout was 75%.

Like voters in the rest of the world, economic issues, the cost of living, pensions and housing affordability feature high on the agenda but in Taiwan there is a clear overriding concern at the back of people’s minds, and that is the threat from China.

The 2024 presidential election has been framed as a choice between war and peace, where a pro-China vote would be a vote for peace.

President Xi has stated that he wants to take control of Taiwan. In his New Year address he described reunification as an "inevitability" and senior officials have warned the people of Taiwan to "make the correct choice" which means not voting for the DPP.

Beijing claims Taiwan as an historically inalienable part of China and has laid claim that it should be returned to the motherland, under the "One China" umbrella.

For the first time in Taiwan there is a tight three-way race for power.

The incumbent DPP candidate Lai Ching-te is facing strong competition from Hou Yu-ih standing for the opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) and Ko Wen-je representing the newly formed Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).

The TPP was only established in 2019, and its chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je is hoping to split the vote between the two main parties, the KMT and the DPP.

Since the first elections in 1996 power has alternated between the two main parties every eight years.

The KMT has accused the present DPP administration of raising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, they have echoed the Communist Party stance that the DPP seeks independence and is to blame for the rising military pressure in the region.

Although the KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih has stated that there would not be reunification under his watch, his party would be willing to engage in talks with China on trade and defence, and many fear that after opening the door to discussions, it would be blown off its hinges.

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The DPP has always said it was willing to talk to the Communist Party but insist it would be as equals. Beijing has refused to cooperate or communicate with President Tsai Ing-wen since she came to power in 2016.

She has increased the country’s cooperation with the United States, and through that has secured billions of dollars to boost Taiwan’s defences - a move which has angered Beijing.

Lai Ching-te, the man hoping to take over from Tsai Ing-wen, has been described by Beijing as a separatist after comments he made in 2017 supporting Taiwan independence.

The DPP official line is that Taiwan is already an independent nation, so there is no need to pursue a declaration of independence.

The Communist Party has declared that any attempt to proclaim independence, would mean war.

An unprecedented third win for the DPP could spark an angry response from China, and it would also force Beijing to recognise that it does not have the will of the Taiwanese people.

It would be hard to sell the inevitability of reunification to a domestic Chinese audience, if the people of Taiwan had clearly voted against that.

The relative newcomer, Kou Wen-je for the Taiwan People’s Party, has tried to paint himself as neither pro-China or anti-China and appears to have gathered strong support among young voters who like having another party to consider and who fear anything other than the current status quo.

President Xi Jinping would hope to see an end to DPP rule, believing that the KMT would be more open to discussions about peaceful reunification.

The Chinese Communist Party has tried to influence voters away from the DPP with a disinformation campaign of fake news and outlandish claims on social media.

One of the latest examples was an e-book released on Chinese language platforms about outgoing DPP President Tsai Ing-wen which painted her as, among other things, promiscuous.

We spoke to the CEO of Team T5 a cyber security firm which monitors an increasing number of cyber-attacks from China, on Taiwan.

He told us they are becoming more sophisticated and gathering a huge amount of personal and military data, to be used against people and the DPP Government.

Polls show that no party is likely to win a majority and before a polling blackout was imposed on January 3, the DPP was just ahead of the KMT.

A lot has been said since those last polls were conducted making the outcome of Saturdays election hard to predict.

This is the first major election in a year of elections, and it is one which has the potential to shape what happens in the rest of the world.

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