The prospect of another by-election looms over the PM and the timing couldn't be worse

The prospect of yet another by-election looms over the prime minister - and it could not have come at a worse moment.    

Rishi Sunak won a fragile victory on Tuesday, as the second reading of his Rwanda Bill passed.    

But in the eyes of many Tories I have spoken to, the bitter fight has left his political authority dented and emboldened Conservatives on the right and left of his party.    

More than two dozen Conservative MPs abstained in opposition to the legislation, and several rebels have begun gearing up for a fight over amendments as the ideological battle for the heart of the Tory party is set to continue into the new year.  

And it's in this febrile environment that voters could be given the opportunity to head to the polls.   

In their damning report published today, the House of Commons committee on standards recommended a 35-day suspension for the Blackpool South MP Scott Benton.    

This followed an undercover investigation by the Times newspaper, whereby the MP was caught allegedly offering to lobby ministers on behalf of the gambling industry.

As a result of the revelations, the Conservative whip was removed in April and he has sat as an Independent MP ever since. 

If the report's recommendations are backed by MPs, a recall petition could be triggered paving the way for a by-election.    

Mr Benton’s seat – which was held by Labour between 1997 and 2019 - was one of several so-called red wall seats which swung to the Conservatives in the last general election.   

But with a small majority of 3,690, Labour strategists will be eyeing up their chances of winning back the constituency.   

The party is also awaiting the outcome of the recall petition in Wellingborough, a seat represented by former Conservative MP Peter Bone, who had the whip removed in October following bullying and harassment allegations.   

The news has lowered morale among some Tories who have been anxiously looking at the latest polls – one described the prospect of more by-elections sparked by sleaze scandals as “depressing”.  

Recent by-election defeats have proved bruising for the Conservatives, with huge majorities overturned in seats such as in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire.  

And according to YouGov, the prime minister's popularity has plummeted, with seven in ten Britons polled stating that they had an unfavourable opinion of Rishi Sunak.   

The worry among some Conservatives is that a divided party is an unappealing prospect to voters worried about bread-and-butter policy issues such as NHS. 

Many MPs have also expressed private frustration that fights over migration have overshadowed the government’s messaging on economy, most notably its success achieving its pledge to half inflation to around five per cent.    

“We need to take the fight to labour,” one senior Conservative told me. “Why are we pressing self-destruct? We have got to be united.”  

While MPs review the watchdog's findings on Mr Benton, Rishi Sunak and his team will hope that the upcoming Christmas recess will provide a moment of much needed calm within the party ahead of what could be a challenging - and tumultuous - political year. 

Want a quick and expert briefing on the biggest news stories? Listen to our latest podcasts to find out What You Need To Know