Sunak still faces battle over Rwanda Bill as Tory right send clear warning shot

Rishi Sunak still has to fight to make sure the bill becomes law. Credit: PA

On the face of it, the government winning tonight's vote on its Rwanda Bill will be a huge relief for the prime minister.

After a day of being on the charm offensive trying to win over his own MPs, Rishi Sunak will be pleased he can rest tonight knowing he isn't the first PM since 1986 to lose a second reading in the House of Commons.

Government bills usually pass effortlessly at this stage and the battle he has faced in the last few days really epitomises the trouble he is in.

Tuesday's news is not necessarily good for the prime minister - his victory tonight is only because 38 of his MPs abstained and chose not to vote against - all sending a clear warning shot - they are unhappy with his bill, they will vote against it at the next opportunity if they have to and if they do, it will fail.

The bill passed its second reading. Credit: PA

The prime minister is potentially therefore being held to ransom, but sadly for him, it's not just one group of MPs doing that, it's several.  

The Bill now moves onto the next stage where MPs will have the opportunity to make changes to it. Tory backbenchers who sit on the right of the party have said if they don't get the changes they want at that stage they will vote against.

A Tory rebel source said: "This bill has been allowed to live another day. But without amendments, it will be killed next month. It’s now up to the government to decide what it wants to do."

They will therefore try and make the bill much stronger by tabling amendments in the House of Commons. But if the prime minister engages in that process he may lose the support of other factions in the more liberal side of the party, which risks the policy not getting through anyway.

At the crux of the problem for Sunak is that no matter which way he chooses to go, he runs the risk of this bill failing and given that he has pinned his political reputation on "stopping the boats" and getting this Rwanda policy off the ground, any chance of the policy not getting through has huge consequences.

Given that just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the prime minister for him to lose, it means nearly all factions within the Conservative Party are wielding significant influence. Tonight it is those on the right who have sent a clear warning shot, telling Sunak his authority is being questioned.

He may have won the battle tonight but more because his opponents decided to kick the can down the road, so they can fight the war in the new year.

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