Why the Israel-Gaza conflict is unlikely to be resolved peacefully

As someone from Northern Ireland, I’m often asked to draw comparisons between the Troubles and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and more particularly why the former was brought to an end while the latter persists.

When I became ITV News’ Middle East Correspondent in the late summer of 2000, my first day at work in Jerusalem saw the outbreak of what would become known as the Second Intifada.

A few weeks earlier, as the Irvine family packed to leave Belfast for Israel, I quipped: "Same story, better weather."

I think that one of the reasons the Northern Ireland peace process culminated in the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 is that by then everyone felt diminished by the violence.

After 30 years of it, we reached the point that each and every murder was a loss for all of us. There was a cross-community sense of shared victimhood.

Sadly, that just doesn’t exist in Israel and the Palestinian Territories.

By and large both sides feel that they, and only they, are the victims here.

The other big difference between the two conflicts is that back in the nineties, Northern Ireland’s political leaders had the will and skill to negotiate a compromise.

The headwinds were strong, but Messrs Mitchell, Blair, and Ahern shepherded the fraught and often tedious Stormont talkfest.

And now and again, President Clinton would stop by to administer pats on the back and offer encouragement for Northern Ireland politicians feeling their way through unfamiliar territory.

By comparison, the Middle East peace process just withered.

Benjamin Netanyahu has been Israel’s Prime Minister for 13 of the last 14 years. He has sought to "shrink" the Palestinian issue and relegate it to the sidelines.

The occasional Hamas rocket salvo out of Gaza allowed him to ignore the moderates of the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank and claim he had no "partner" for peace.

The Trump administration played ball and also ignored the issue, as did the Biden administration. Until now.

Ignoring the Palestinian question hasn’t made it go away. And there is no military solution. Constructive talks have to follow this war or another Hamas will emerge from the rubble.

The Palestinians need hope. They must be able to see more than Israeli F-16s on the horizon.

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