What is at stake in Australia's divisive landmark referendum?

By Alicia Curry, Multimedia Producer

Votes are being cast to change Australia's constitution in a historic referendum for the nation aimed at acknowledging a place for Aboriginal people.

It could see the establishment of an advisory body named the Voice, made up of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, that would permanently represent and recognise Indigenous people in Parliament.

The referendum on Saturday will see the majority of citizens cast their ballot under the country's compulsory voting model.

Despite polling early on in the campaign indicating 65% of Australians backed the change, the success of the 'no' campaign has seen this slide to the mid-30s, with the referendum now set to be rejected.

But, as the tone of the symbolic referendum sharpens and attitudes on the Voice are polarised, how will the population of Australia vote?

What is the referendum question?

Voters will be asked to vote 'yes' or 'no' on a single question.

The question on the ballot paper will be: "A Proposed Law: to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.

"Do you approve this proposed alteration?"

Who are the Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders?

Aboriginals are the indigenous people on mainland Australia, while Torres Strait Islanders are the natives of 274 islands located north of Australia, in the Torres Strait.

Collectively they are known as the 'First People' but each group is comprised of hundreds of sub-cultures that have their own enshrined languages and traditions.

In 1788, British colonists dispossessed and killed thousands of people under the notion that European customs were superior.

Numbering over 800,000 people, indigenous people now make up just 3.8% of the population, according to the latest census, but are disproportionally disadvantaged compared to other Australian citizens.

The average life expectancy of the First People is 10 years younger and they also suffer from higher mortality rates, lower rates of employment and higher levels of incarceration.

Why is the vote happening?

In 2017, indigenous people met at Uluru - formerly Ayers Rock - to deliver the Uluru Statement from the Heart, described as "an invitation from a group of First Nations people to non-indigenous Australians."

The Statement calls for substantive reform to help realise indigenous rights, through the establishment of an Indigenous Voice to Parliament.

"By establishing this constitutional voice it's hoped that a process of healing and reconciliation between indigenous and non-indigenous peoples can begin," Professor Charles Lees, an expert in Australian politics from the City University of London, told ITV News.

At the time, the prime minister Malcolm Turnbull turned down the offer, it was only when Anthony Albanese and the Labour Party were elected in 2022 that the process which would lead to the referendum began.

What is the premise of the Voice campaign?

"There's real structural problems around Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders", Professor Lees explains.

"One of the primary reasons for that was that there's been nothing embedded in the Constitution where there's a real duty to be listened to by government."

The Voice would be codified in the constitution as an advisory board to government on matters affecting indigenous communities, with a primary focus on health, housing, education and jobs.

Mr Albanese has said the group would be "an unflinching source of advice and accountability, not a third chamber, not a rolling veto, not a blank cheque, but a body with the perspective and the power and the platform to tell the government and the parliament the truth about what is working and what is not".

There would be no legal veto for indigenous people over government policy and politicians could discount representations made by the Voice.

However, critics argue that the constitutional powers of the group could be ambiguous and may be contorted in courts.

Why has it been so divisive?

Concerns have spread as the campaign reaches the final surge, with the largest question mark surrounding the actual functionality of the Voice, the details of which will not be hammered out until after the referendum.

Professor Lees says the 'No' campaign has tried to "wedge that uncertainty" by playing on "natural social conservatism and fear" through the message "if you don't know, vote no".

Widespread misinformation has fuelled this particular narrative, with concerns from non-indigenous citizens over land rights at the forefront of the argument.

The polarised debate has been underpinned by scaremongering over the false claim that the Voice would lead to the conversion of private land titles in Australia to native titles.

Subsequently, the tone of the campaign has become "sharp", with reports of campaign posters being torn from neighbours' porches as anger grows.

What will it mean if the Voice is implemented?

"On a practical level it would mean real input from indigenous communities into the policymaking process, and despite it being in a advisory fashion it would come from their accumulated knowledge," Professor Lees said.

It would also be an undeniably symbolic reform constitutionally because, as it stands, there is no formal acknowledgment of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australian government.

However, if the electorate rejects the 'Yes' campaign, it could be taken as a statement of rejection on "what is a simple gesture of reconciliation and equality," says Professor Lees.

Many progressives argue the constitution should more importantly acknowledge that Indigenous Australians never ceded their land to British colonizers and a treaty was a higher priority than a Voice.

Conservative “no” campaigners argue the Voice is too radical and the courts could interpret its powers in unpredictable ways.

Some Indigenous people don’t have faith that the Voice’s membership would represent their diverse priorities.

How similar is the Voice referendum to Brexit?

Hailed the country's "Brexit-moment", it's natural that comparisons are being drawn between the Voice vote and the UK's 2016 referendum.

Professor Ian McAllister, political expert at The Australian National University, suggests most of the similarities exist in the wave of populism that incites the anti-establishment side of the campaign.

"There's this sense that people that voted for Brexit were really motivated by concern about illegal immigration and refugees. That was reflected in the Brexit referendum because they blamed the EU for it and wanted out," he said.

"It's going to be a bit similar here in the sense that the political elite have said you should do something - there's this particular issue you should vote for. But the people have said, well hang on a minute we've got 8% inflation, we've got a cost-of-living, we're concerned about getting by.

"You're all very well off and you can indulge yourself in these things that really concern only a small majority of the population and we're going to tell you what we think about it."

What are the predictions for the vote?

At the start of the year, it was polled that 65% of people were going to support the referendum but it has since dropped down to 35%.

It is looking increasingly unlikely that the referendum will pass, with Professor McAllister citing campaign management and Australia's voting system as the primary causes.

Australia requires a double majority, which is a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least four of the six states).

Historically, this has meant most proposals have been rejected for constitutional amendments, approving only eight out of 44 referendums submitted to them.

Another hurdle is that voting is compulsory in the country, with one in four of the expected 94% turnout unlikely to vote if it was voluntary.

The detached and apathetic nature of these voters means they "often swing no," Professor McAllister explains.

He adds: "This in addition to the failure for clear communication, misinformation that's cropped up, the economic backdrop and a wave of populism will drive the 'No' vote."

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