Why pensioners may not get 8.5% rise

The pensions minister has admitted the triple lock is not sustainable in the long term, ITV News Political Correspondent Carl Dinnen reports

Normally pensions would be uprated next April in line with today's total pay stats, that is pay including bonuses.

But read this from the Office for National Statistics (ONS): "Annual growth in regular pay [excluding bonuses] was 7.8% in May-to-July 2023, the same as the previous 3-month period and is the highest regular annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.

"Annual growth in employees' average total pay [including bonuses] was 8.5%; this total annual growth rate is affected by the NHS and Civil Service one-off payments made in June and July 2023."

In other words, the rise in total pay was inflated significantly by the government's decision to pay cost-of-living bonuses to the public sector.

I imagine the Treasury will argue these bonuses were exceptional and should be stripped out of the rise for pensioners.

Stripping out the bonus-effect would probably save the government half a billion pounds a year.

I would expect something of a public row about whether the rise for pensioners should be indexed by the lower "regular" or the "higher" total pay increments.

Want a quick and expert briefing on the biggest news stories? Listen to our latest podcasts to find out What You Need To Know...