'It’s when, not if': Alpine glaciers on track to vanish amid European heatwaves

By James Hockaday, Multimedia Producer

Italy is in the midst of its third heatwave of the summer, with tourists in 16 cities advised to stay indoors during the day as temperatures this week near 40C.

As "Nero", an anticyclone of hot air from the Saharan desert, brings significantly hotter weather to the country's central and northern regions, the whole Alpine region is feeling the impact.

Even at 4,000 metres above sea level, the region's glaciers are melting at an increasing rate, with scientists warning the Times that nights are becoming too warm for the ice to restore.

Recently, across the border in Switzerland, a weather balloon designed to measure the "zero-degree line", the altitude at which the temperature falls to zero, noted a significant change.

According to the MeteoSuisse meteorology service, the balloon, launched from Payerne, saw the overnight zero-degree point rise from last year's record of 5,184 metres to 5,298 metres.

While, of course, ice melting during the summer is nothing remarkable in itself, scientists warn the increasingly occurrence of "extreme" weather events is permanently tipping the balance.

“The problem is they are getting more intense and they are getting more regular, and there’s a reason for that, it’s burning fossil fuels and global warming," glaciologist Professor Martin Siegert told ITV News.

“A day or two of this is okay, but repeated losses of these glaciers means the 'accumulation area' is getting smaller."

By this, Prof Siegert, a polar researcher and vice chancellor of the University of Exeter, is talking about the area of a glacier in the upper reaches that receives more mass per year - in the form of snow and ice.

He says that this balance is being disrupted, not only in the Alps, but in regions across the world.

Asked what would happen if the Alps lose their glaciers completely, he was quick to point out: "It's a case of when, not if. That's inevitable because there's no glacier in the Alps that's gaining ice, they're all losing it.

“We have to understand this is now happening and we are now certain that’s down to us burning fossil fuels.”

With researchers warning we are approaching a key global warming threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, Prof Siegert said: “If we don’t reduce our emissions then eventually we’re looking at 2C or 3C, then some of the things we’re talking about now will pale into insignificance."

So what are the impacts of this phenomenon? A study recently published in the Nature, Ecology and Evolution journal warned that "Alpine river biodiversity around the world is under threat from glacier retreat".

It warns that "glacial influence on rivers is projected to decrease steadily, with river networks expanding into higher elevations at a rate of 1% per decade", putting many invertebrates species at risk that are crucial for the wider ecosystem.

Humans are already feeling the impact, with a report in March by environmental group Legambiente claiming 249 Italian ski resorts have already been forced to close as a result of rising temperatures.

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While this means a big hit for the tourist industry, Prof Siegert is not particularly sympathetic.

“Frankly from a climate perspective, with the number of people flying for their skiing holidays I’m not particularly fussed about that outcome because we shouldn’t be doing it anyway.

"We should be going by train," he says, adding that it is “bizarre” and “perverse” to advertise flights to ski resorts in the Alps and then bemoan the loss of glacial ice in the region.

“People need to realise the damage they are responsible for," he adds.

Prof Siegert warns the more the glacial system is disrupted, and the less ice there is to flow down to lower levels, the harder it will be for Switzerland and Norway to sustain their hydroelectric electricity industries.

While initially melting glaciers could increase the potential of hydroelectricity, this will decline as the glaciers get smaller and smaller.

As Swiss-Energyscope says: "The day will come, probably between 2030 and 2050, when glaciers have receded so much that melt-water volumes will begin to decline, reducing river flows and potential storage relative to today.

"At the current rate, Swiss glaciers will have virtually disappeared by the end of the century. This could reduce Switzerland’s hydropower output once the glacier meltwater input has been exhausted."

Prof Siegert says the impact melting Alpine glaciers will have on rising sea levels is minimal, after all, it is a small proportion of the world's 300,000 glaciers.

But what he really sees the phenomenon as is a "barometer" of what's happening across the globe.

"It’s obvious that as the planet warms the ice recedes, you can just see it happening. If you wanted an independent assessment of global warming you could just look at the ice, not just in the Alps, but anywhere in the world, particularly in Antarctica.”

“This is just another extreme event of multiple extreme events. These things are not isolated," adds Prof Siegert, whose research is mainly focused on the Antarctic ice sheet.

“Unfortunately it’s a testament to our civilisation in that in the 20th and early 21st century, knowing we are doing this damage but continuing to do it. Somehow we are unwilling to do anything about it.”