Would 12.4% bring junior doctors in England to the negotiating table?

Junior doctors are on strike again as a bitter pay dispute with the government continues, ITV News Deputy Political Editor Anushka Asthana reports

Nurses, ambulance workers and others in the NHS took 5%, plus a one-off payment of at least £1,655 - while teachers accepted 6.5% and police officers got 7%.

But an offer of 6%, plus £1,250 (which works out as 8.8% on average) fell well short for doctors.

They want 35% to make up for more than a decade of real-terms cuts. 

Now, in reality, no one in the British Medical Association (BMA) is expecting Rishi Sunak to stump up their full demand.

They are insisting a "credible offer" would bring them back to the negotiating table.

So what does a credible offer look like? 

I would suggest that Scotland is worth considering - there has been no strikes and a 12.4% pay-rise this year (plus a promise to negotiate above inflation settlements over the next two years) is being considered by the BMA there.

It was notable that folk I spoke to at the BMA today were quick to praise the Scottish government for a deal that falls well short of the 35%.

It seems clear to me that an offer in England in the same ball park could restart talks.

Now the BMA will not say that publicly - which is why the government has criticised them for speaking so differently about the Scotland.

One source close to the health secretary Steve Barclay told me it shows this action is "part of a politically motivated campaign to bring down the government". 

And anyway, the government won't offer more money.

Health Secretary Steve Barclay (left) and Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt Credit: PA
Consultants threaten further strikes if government continues to 'refuse' talks

Both the PM and Mr Barclay say the financial offer put down is already their "final" one.

And they will now only discuss non-pay conditions. 

So where does that leave us? With both sides deeply pessimistic about finding a solution, and a blame game underway.

In Downing Street, they believe Mr Sunak's decision to accept the pay review body recommendation means the public will now start to blame doctors for the strikes. 

The strategy underway aims to ultimately blame doctors for the potential and increasingly likely fallout - a failure to cut NHS waiting lists, one of the PM's five key pledges.

But it is a risky strategy given where the polling is.

In July, a poll for YouGov had 56% of the public supporting junior doctors and 37% opposing them - a slight narrowing since April but still heavy support.

For Ipsos the figures were 56% to 24% - a slight rise in people backing them. 

Members of the Unite union on the picket line outside Guys and St Thomas' Hospital. Credit: PA

Certainly my chats outside St Thomas' today had patients lining up to back doctors.

But they were also really worried about the impact of the strikes.

Before this one even began there were almost 600,000 appointments and operations cancelled from previous walkouts, plus worries about the cumulative effect given the additional backlog each strike creates.

And the cost is eyewatering, around £1bn already for the NHS in terms of both junior doctor and consultant strikes.

Meanwhile senior NHS figures tell me this is the hardest time to cope with as it is peak holiday time and rotas are already hard to cover. 

So the impact is huge but the deadlock appears to continue.

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