ULEZ 'may be only reason' Tories narrowly avoided losing Uxbridge by-election
A positive and quite frankly relieved prime minister told me this morning that Westminster had written off the Tories and that winning today in Uxbridge and South Ruislip was proof that the next election wasn’t over.
While there is some truth in that, the muted celebrations are a result of expectation management.
With defeat the prediction, a small shock win was a surprising success.
But the stark reality is that a Tory safe seat, once held by former prime minister Boris Johnson, has just seen its 7,000 majority shrunk to only 500.
It’s a far cry from the type of success Mr Sunak will really want and need and more so because this by-election was fought primarily on a single local issue: ULEZ.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip sit right on the boundary of the ultra low emission zone and the vast majority of voters I spoke to today are deeply frustrated by this extra cost.
One went as far as to say they would prefer Keir Starmer and Labour in office but they voted Conservative in this election purely because of ULEZ.
What is ULEZ?
ULEZ is separate from the capital's congestion charge, which is aimed at reducing traffic.
It was introduced in hopes of cutting air pollution in the capital by discouraging the use of high-emission vehicles through imposing a daily fee.
It runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week and aims to improve the health of Londoners by reducing the amount of particulate matter and nitrous oxides they breathe.
Drivers of vehicles that don't meet ULEZ emission standards are charged £12.50 a day with a penalty for non-payment of up to £180.
Generally, petrol cars registered after 2005 and diesel cars registered after 2015 meet the emissions standards. Drivers can check if their vehicles meet the standards here.
Critics of the ULEZ expansion from inner to outer London say the scheme disproportionately affects lower income people who need to drive for work, and that it discourages sole traders from outside London taking work in the city.
London's Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan has come under intense scrutiny over the ULEZ scheme within London's local political battles.
As part of a settlement for Transport for London (TfL) reached in 2020, the Conservative government's then-transport secretary Grant Shapps insisted on the expansion of the ULEZ expansion to outer London zones as a condition of additional funding.
Business owners in the local area, often the beating heart of the community, and best placed to help read the temperature of any constituency, mirrored these thoughts.
One told us that ULEZ was all they cared about and that all his customers talk about it regularly.
It is an example of how quickly an issue can energise people, and it does undoubtedly give Mr Sunak hope, that over the next few months things can change.
But even with the local issue on his side, the result isn’t a particularly fantastic one and there’s no denying that the numbers in this once Tory safe seat have moved in the wrong direction.
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