500 days of war: The time is right for Ukraine to go for a big breakthrough

Ukrainian soldiers fire an artillery at Russian positions near Bakhmut. Credit: AP

War has its own vocabulary, one with relatively few words.

How often we hear them - command and control; frontline; morale; enemy positions; salvoes; barrages; strikes; offensive; defensive; advance; retreat; win; lose.

Five hundred days since Russia started the war in Ukraine, the word that really matters is “initiative” - and there’s no doubt it is currently with the Ukrainians.

Since their much talked about counteroffensive began on June 4 the Ukrainians have been probing (another well-used war word) all along the 1,800 kilometre frontline.

People watch as emergency service workers continue to search for victims after a Russian missile attack in Lviv, Ukraine. Credit: AP
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They are looking for the best places to commit the nine newly-created brigades being held in reserve. 

The units are equipped with Western armour and used properly those tanks and armoured personnel carriers can achieve a breakthrough.

To hurt the Russians the Ukrainians will be thinking about two key places - Bakhmut and Crimea.

Bakhmut is the Kremlin’s only victory this year and taking the city back would be a blow to Putin’s forces. 

It wouldn’t be a good look - the Russian Army unable to hold on to a place captured by mercenaries from the Wagner Group.

Wagner Group mercenaries wave a Russian national and Wagner flag atop a damaged building in Bakhmut. Credit: AP
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Back in 2014, we watched as ‘little green men’ (some from the then-fledgling Wagner Group) emasculated the Ukrainian Army on the Crimean Peninsula.

Crimea tugs at Russian heartstrings. For many it’s an idyll of beaches, vineyards and oligarch mansions.  It’s also home to the Black Sea fleet.

Anything the Ukrainians can do to threaten Russia’s grip on the peninsula will cause ructions in Moscow.

Ukrainian forces look busy and motivated. By comparison, the Russians look tired and out of ideas.

Zelenskyy's military is planning what to do next. Credit: AP

The quarrel between Wagner and the Defence Ministry that culminated in the short-lived march to Moscow is a complete embarrassment for Vladimir Putin who either doesn’t know or can’t face up to how badly his troops are doing.

Can he change the direction of travel?  We know he can stoop to the horrific, but that shouldn’t tie one hand behind Ukraine’s back.

Be in no doubt, Ukraine has lost a lot of soldiers seizing the initiative.  And they risk losing many more pressing home the advantageous position they have earned for themselves.

In the weeks running up to the Russian invasion the world was predicting the Ukrainians wouldn’t last a week.  

Five hundred days after Putin went for it his troops are going nowhere and must be even more confused as to why they are in Ukraine at all.

The Wagner fiasco suggests Russian ineptitude stretches from the trenches in the Donbas all the way to the Kremlin, meaning the time is right for Ukraine’s forces to go for a big breakthrough.  

After weeks of chipping away at the formidable Russian defensive line, they must now know where to concentrate the big push.

And, if not now, then when?

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