Why are both Russia and Ukraine warning about an attack on Europe's largest nuclear power plant?

A Russian serviceman guards an area of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station in territory under Russian military control, southeastern Ukraine, in 2022. Credit: AP

Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of planning to attack one of the world's largest nuclear power plants, in a move that experts have warned could lead to disaster.

Both sides have said they believe the other wants to attack the plant, but neither has provided evidence to back up their claims.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been a focus of concern since Moscow’s forces took control of it and its staff in the early stages of the war.

It sits on the south bank of the Dnipro River, which means it is just within Russia's area of control but puts it on the frontline of the conflict.

An aerial view of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Credit: AP

Zaporizhzhia is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe but its six reactors have been shut down since the start of the war.

Over the last year, the UN's atomic watchdog repeatedly expressed alarm over the possibility of a radiation catastrophe, like the one at Chernobyl after a reactor exploded in 1986.While Russia and Ukraine regularly traded blame over shelling near the plant that caused power outages, Ukraine has alleged more recently that Moscow might try to cause a deliberate leak in an attempt to derail Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive in the surrounding Zaporizhzhia region.What has Ukraine said?

Citing the latest intelligence reports, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alleged on Tuesday night that Russian troops had placed "objects resembling explosives" on top of several power units to "simulate" an attack as part of a false flag operation.The "foreign objects" were placed on the roof of the plant’s third and fourth power units, according to a statement from the General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces.

They said their detonation "should not damage power units but may create a picture of shelling from Ukraine."

Last week, Ukrainian emergency workers held a drill to prepare for a potential release of radiation from the plant.

According to the country’s emergency services, in case of a nuclear disaster at the plant, approximately 300,000 people would be evacuated from the areas closest to the facility.

A Russian serviceman guards in an area of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. Credit: AP

Ukrainian officials have said the shut-down reactors are protected by thick concrete containment domes.

What has Russia said?

In Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov raised the spectre of a potentially "catastrophic" provocation by the Ukrainian army at the nuclear plant."The situation is quite tense. There is a great threat of sabotage by the Kyiv regime, which can be catastrophic in its consequences," Peskov said.

He also claimed that the Kremlin was pursuing "all measures" to counter the alleged Ukrainian threat.Peskov’s comments came after Renat Karchaa, an advisor to Russian state nuclear company Rosenergoatom, said there was "no basis" for Zelenskyy’s claims of a plot to simulate an explosion.

"Why would we need explosives there? This is nonsense, (aimed at) maintaining tension around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant," Karchaa said.What has the International Atomic Energy Agency said?

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has officials stationed at the plant, which is still run by its Ukrainian staff.

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said his agency’s most recent inspection of the plant found no mining activities, "but we remain extremely alert".


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"As you know, there is a lot of combat, I have been there a few weeks ago, and there is contact there very close to the plant, so we cannot relax," Grossi said during a visit to Japan.The IAEA also said they have yet to observe any indications of mines or explosives at the plant, but they need more access to be sure.

What's the danger?

The International Institute for Strategic Studies said last week that "a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia would probably not lead to the widespread dispersal of significant amounts of radiation" due to precautionary steps taken by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

However, the think tank noted in an assessment that wind might blow some amount of radiation toward Russia.

Several factors minimise the risk of a major nuclear disaster.

Mainly that both Russia and Ukraine are talking about a strike hitting the top of the plant, far away from the heavily reinforced reactors.

Despite this, any strike on the plant would likely inflame international tension over the conflict and spark a diplomatic outcry.