Hunt to slash public spending growth to 1%

Hunt’s Autumn Statement will cut annual growth in post-election public spending to just 1%, from currently pencilled in 3.7%, I am told, for an annual implied saving of almost £25bn.

This is a huge proportion of the £55bn fiscal black hole.

There will be some protection for the NHS, that is annual growth greater than that - which implies real and painful cuts for other public services.

To be clear, because these cuts are so far away, they both reduce the forecast government deficit to reassure investors and are simultaneously semi fiction, in that economic conditions could be better (or worse by then), and there will be a new government, with the ability to over-write them (for better or worse).

Even so the symbolism matters, because if you work in the public sector it will reinforce your gloom that your own pay will under-perform the private sector for many years, and you will doubt your particular service (schools, hospitals, law and order) will ever have the resources to meet public expectations on quality, efficacy and timeliness - especially since there will be significant and painful cuts in capital spending.

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