How Sunak could be crowned PM on Monday

Sunak has the momentum in the MPs contest.

He is circa 60 nominations away from having 179 backers, or the support of more than half of MPs - and before a single vote has been cast.

At that point it is realistic to ask whether either Mordaunt or Johnson could reach the threshold of 100 nominations.

It is possible this will all be done and dusted, with Sunak crowned new Tory leader and UK prime minister, at 2pm on Monday.

To be clear, we are in the territory of realistic hypothesis, not certainty.

But Sunak’s lobbying operation seems to be working.

In a way, having warned very loudly that Truss’s tax-cutting plans would be a catastrophe, perhaps that should not be a surprise.

It is probable also that many MPs have looked over the precipice, since Johnson’s supporters started their campaign to bring him back, and want to say goodbye to the disunity and chaotic governance of the Johnson era.

Or to put it another way, there seems to be a mood, a trend, among Tory MPs to prevent the contest going to a members’ vote.

Because it is only Tory members who if allowed to vote would carry Johnson back into 10 Downing Street.

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