NHS in England could face 'apocalyptic shortage of 140,000 NHS nurses by 2030'

There could be an “apocalyptic” shortage of 140,000 NHS nurses in England in less than a decade, new analysis has found.

Despite numbers of nursing staff increasing, it has been estimated that the health service will be short of 38,000 full-time equivalent registered nurses by 2023/24 and in a “pessimistic” scenario, there would be a shortage of 140,000 nurses by 2030/31, according to the Health Foundation.

The government had set a target of recruiting an additional 50,000 nurses by the end of the parliament, but Westminster's target failed to recognise the increase in demand for care – particularly by people with more complex health needs and among the elderly, the think tank said.

Leading nurses described the projected 140,000 figure as “apocalyptic”.

Estimates are based on the numbers of staff needed to deliver pre-pandemic levels of care to patients in the health service in England.

In the last year alone, almost 20,000 nurses left the health service in England and the government target still left a shortfall of tens of thousands. It also failed to consider bringing in nurses to specialities where there are the biggest gaps, including social and community care, nurses working in GP practices and those working in learning disability and mental health services, the Health Foundation said.

Anita Charlesworth, director of research and REAL Centre, blamed a "lack of long-term planning" for persistent high vacancy rates and the solution required more than just a "just fix".

“The NHS in England appears to be on track to recruit the additional 50,000 nurses promised by the government by 2023/24, but this relies heavily on sustaining historically high levels of international recruitment, very much a ‘quick fix’ and does not replace the need to train and retain more nurses in the UK," she said.

“The 50,000 target is arbitrary and not based on the number of nurses the NHS needs; nor does it ensure that nurses are recruited to the areas and types of care where the need is greatest. 50,000 extra nurses will still leave the NHS almost 40,000 short of what is needed."

Commenting on the analysis, Patricia Marquis, director for England at the Royal College of Nursing, also said long-term planning was needed to halt the problem.

She said: “These projections show the apocalyptic impact inactivity from ministers could have on the NHS in England – a potential shortfall of 140,000 nurses would be devastating for patient care.

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“For years, ministers have failed to take responsibility for staffing levels in health and social care. There is no alternative to comprehensive long-term workforce planning, that fully takes into account patient needs."

She added: “Ministers must heed the warnings in these projections and act decisively with a fully funded health and care workforce strategy.”

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “There are over 9,600 more nurses in the NHS compared to last year, and we are well over halfway towards meeting our commitment to recruiting 50,000 more nurses by 2024, which will significantly increase nursing capacity across the NHS.

“We are working to retain the existing workforce, boost training and education routes into nursing and use international recruitment opportunities to supply the NHS with a long-term sustainable nursing workforce.

“We have also commissioned NHS England to develop a long-term workforce strategy to help provide certainty for the future.”