Insight

Tory leadership race: What's the mood among MPs and who is their money on?

There is a febrile atmosphere in Parliament today as eight candidates battle it out to try to win over fellow MPs - some hopefuls are seeing them one after another in their offices, others are touring the tea-rooms and Portcullis House.

One MP told me: "It is like running the gauntlet just trying to get down a corridor."

They joked that they tried to just say "good morning" to a colleague and friend and got "15 minutes on the virtues of Rishi Sunak".

"I am not answering calls from secretaries of state - people I'd normally be begging to have a conversation with. Some MPs are declaring just to make it stop."

A number of the candidates are confident of making the 30 votes including team Rishi (Sunak), team Liz (Truss), team Penny (Mordaunt) and team Tom (Tugendhat).

When I asked Michael Gove if he felt confident that his chosen candidate, Kemi Badenoch, would get through, he held up crossed fingers.

The mood around Suella Braverman is quite nervous - particularly because Badenoch is occupying a similar space on the right of the party.

In fact, it's spilled into anger. Steve Baker who is campaign manager for Braverman has questioned Gove's motives, claiming he had been told Gove was originally backing Sunak. As for Jeremy Hunt's team, they sound despondent; unsure if they'll make 30 today, but certain he can't win. Interestingly, one MP told me they had found Hunt the most impressive of any candidates in one-on-one chats ("head and shoulders above the rest") and impressive in a hustings on social justice.

But when they asked their local party members - the response was that Hunt was "toxic".

Allies of Hunt will concede that it has harmed them not to be higher on Conservative Home polls - and there is also a sense that you get one chance at this. Hunt had his last time. Another one who is probably quite close on the 30 is Nadhim Zahawi. If he drops out, then who he backs could be key.

Many MPs tell me they do like Zahawi but believe the race is about gaining momentum.


Want a quick and expert briefing on the biggest news stories? Listen to our latest podcasts to find out What You Need To Know...

And the momentum is very much with Mordaunt - who is the chat of the tea-rooms after an impressive launch. She also impressed MPs on different wings of the party at a hustings event yesterday.

One liberal Tory who went to the hustings of the social justice caucus felt she was among the best, and so did another MP who went to the Commonsense group debate for those on the right.

The frontrunners have been Sunak and Truss - unquestionably - and both have plenty of Tory MPs as backers.

But I've also described them both as backrunners - because as many MPs that like them tell me they don't want one or the other.

There is a big "anyone but Rishi" and "anyone but Liz" feeling around - with some arguing that either candidate would, therefore, be divisive for the party.

Interestingly, it doesn't all breakdown easily to left and right. One Badenoch supporter said they would swing to Mordaunt because they didn't want Truss. That said, Truss appears to have a very strong chance of making the final two.

But a lot of MPs tell me their money would be on a Sunak v Mordaunt final, with Mordaunt winning among party members.