Boris Johnson faces prospect of no-confidence vote as poll signals Tory Wakefield defeat
The Conservatives are heading for a potentially catastrophic defeat in an upcoming key electoral contest, a new poll indicates, as reports suggest Boris Johnson could face a crunch vote on his premiership as soon as next week.
A survey of voters in Wakefield, who will go to the polls on June 23 to elect a new MP, has suggested the Tories could lose the by-election in West Yorkshire by as much as 20 points.
As reported in The Sunday Times, polling by JL Partners puts Labour on 48 points compared with 28 points for the Conservatives, down 19 points from the winning Tory performance in the 2019 general election.
Before the 2019 result, Wakefield, like other so-called Red Wall areas, had consistently voted for a Labour candidate for decades.
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So, the new polling is an indication the revelations about lockdown-breaking gatherings in Downing Street - heavily condemned in the Sue Gray report released last month - have hit the party’s popularity in a battleground seat.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners and a former Downing Street pollster, said the Conservatives are “behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s”.
“All signs are that partygate has crystallised historic concerns about the Tories and turned the people of Wakefield decidedly against them," he tweeted.
Wakefield is voting for a candidate to succeed former Tory incumbent Imran Ahmad Khan after he was found guilty of sexually assaulting a teenage boy.
The JL Partners survey could pile more pressure on the PM, who faces a second test in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election on the same day as Wakefield, in the wake of the party revelations.
Last month, an investigation published by senior civil servant Sue Gray laid bare the details of a host of Covid rule-breaching gatherings held in No 10 and Whitehall.
The PM was found to have attended a number of leaving dos for aides, giving speeches and joining in the drinking of alcohol, despite him at the same time telling the public not to see sick and dying loved ones in a bid to stop the spread of the virus.
The publication of Ms Gray’s findings have accelerated calls for Mr Johnson to resign, with almost 30 Tory MPs having urged for him to quit and more publicly voicing criticisms.
Under Conservative Party rules, if 54 letters of no confidence in his premiership are submitted to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories, then a leadership vote will be held.
The Sunday Times said it had been told as many as 67 letters had gone in which, if correct, would mean the threshold has been reached.
The rebels would need 180 voters to remove the Prime Minister from power during the secret poll, otherwise affording him, by the current rules, a year’s stay of execution before another bid to oust him can be held.
A vote this week on his future as PM would cap a bruising few days for Mr Johnson, who on Friday was booed upon his arrival, alongside his wife Carrie, for a service at St Paul’s Cathedral to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Queen’s reign.
Mr Johnson will now seek to focus on efforts to tackle the NHS backlog built up during the pandemic as he looks to draw a line under the partygate scandal. The Department of Health and Social Care signalled ministers will be making series of announcements in the coming week on the progress that the £12 billion-a-year catch-up programme is making. The government is also expected to publish a review into health and care leadership by General Sir Gordon Messenger, a former vice-chief of the defence staff, aimed at ensuring the cash injection is spent efficiently.