Sigh of relief for Boris Johnson - but Tory MPs fear electoral damage

Soon after the news landed that the prime minister would not be receiving any further police fines, I spoke to a Conservative MP who I knew had submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson.

"He's 100% safe now," the MP told me, adding that they would now withdraw their letter.

They said that any other fines for leaving dos or parties in the flat, would have strengthened anger. "But I don't want the prime minister to go over a birthday cake," they said.

And in many ways - however bizarre it sounds - this Met Police outcome of 126 police fines for parties at the heart of government - is good news for the man in charge at Downing Street.

After all, it means he's been cleared of criminal wrong-doing in almost everything that he was accused of, apart from the one event that many people feel wasn't that bad.

That doesn't mean there will be no repercussions for the PM.

First is the possibility of resentment among junior Downing street staff who have been fined for attending the same events as him. The reason for the disparity is likely to be that the PM successfully argued these were work events, with some of them included in his work diary, and he left long before some of them descended into boozy affairs.

Second is the upcoming Sue Gray report, which I know from sources is going to be very messy, and which they are hoping to publish before recess, next Thursday.

I know her report will include lurid details of some of the most egregious breaches of Covid rules, including one event that involved free-flowing booze, karaoke and a middle of the night punch-up.

She will also criticise failures of leadership. However, in an earlier draft of her report, at least, sources tell me Ms Gray doesn't directly point the finger at the PM.

Instead, around 15 senior civil servants are named, raising the possibility that the report is more painful for Cabinet Secretary Simon Case. As for Tory MPs, even those who remain deeply critical of Mr Johnson think he is probably safe for now.

The one who withdrew their letter said the prime minister wouldn't be hugely loved by many colleagues, but they simply wouldn't want him to go over this.

Another sounded miserable as they conceded Mr Johnson was safe for now, but added: "We are going to lose the next election with him as leader - he's toxic."

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And regardless of today's outcome, partygate has been deeply problematic for Mr Johnson in the anger it has generated across large parts of the country.

Many Tory MPs - particularly those across the south of England - were taken aback by the response on the doorstep in recent local elections.

At a garden party for MPs returning to Parliament after the elections, senior Tories told me about how they all discussed what they'd heard and felt despair. They told me that there wasn't appetite to move against the PM - but many did feel they'd lose their seats.

That concern could be sharpened in coming months as the Conservatives face two key elections - in the Red Wall seat of Wakefield, and the Devon seat of Tiverton and Honiton.

If Labour won back a north of England seat, and then the Lib Dems overturned a 24k majority in the south, that could start to become problematic.

Add in the massive pressure of the cost of living crisis, with fears that the response from the Treasury will fall short, and there are difficult political times ahead.

But, for now, the PM will be breathing a sigh of relief.