Sinn Fein's win in Northern Ireland is historic but it changes nothing yet

Sinn Fein’s historic victory is making headlines around the world, and rightly so. 

It’s a breakthrough for Irish nationalism and republicanism in a country dominated by unionism since its creation. 

Given the context of the Troubles, and where Sinn Fein have come from to reach this point of being in a position to nominate an Irish republican as first minister, this election result is monumental. And yet it changes nothing - not yet anyway.

Sinn Fein stands for a united Ireland, and the end of British rule, but this single vote does not bring about the end of the UK, nor does it trigger a referendum on the issue. It simply can’t. 

Northern Ireland’s political system works through power-sharing. That’s enshrined in the makeup of the Stormont Assembly, meaning the biggest nationalist party must always share power equally with the biggest unionist party. 

This means the roles of first minister and deputy first minister in Northern Ireland are, in fact, entirely the same in terms of authority. It is a unique system but it’s fundamental to understand neither job has power over the other. 

Until now, of course, the biggest party has always been unionist and so Northern Ireland has only had unionist first ministers. That now changes. 

But the significance of Sinn Fein being able to take the role of first minister is entirely symbolic. They yield no more sway than they’ve had before, and certainly they have no greater authority than the DUP’s deputy first minister (if the DUP ever decides to take part in this assembly). 

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What this change symbolises is worth paying attention to, though. 

A pro-united Ireland party has just won a Stormont election, while in Scotland the pro-independence SNP holds onto power comfortably. 

People in the devolved nations of the UK are sending Westminster a message, and the Union cannot afford to ignore it. 

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Some of this unrest is Brexit-related: remember, both Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to remain. They’ve still been taken out of the EU, and in the case of Northern Ireland it’s stoked a lot of resentment on both sides of the divide. 

The Protocol is anathema to unionists and loyalists, and the DUP falling into second place is partly punishment from their base for failing to stop it, and a perception they were ‘played’ by Boris Johnson. 

That context is also important for Northern Ireland because Sinn Fein haven’t won by gaining seats; they’ve won by the DUP losing seats. 

And for those wringing their hands proclaiming this result as the end of the union, take a closer look at how people voted and you’ll see unionism combined is still on top in Northern Ireland. 

In order for there to be a border poll on a united Ireland, it’s generally understood from the Good Friday Agreement that nationalism must demonstrate numerical superiority, or opinion polls should show a continued majority support for Irish unity. 

Neither criteria has been met in this election. Support for a border poll in Northern Ireland (depending on how the question is worded) is roughly at about 35%.

This Sinn Fein win does not reflect any sudden clamour for a referendum, and to interpret it through that prism would be to misread what’s happening. 

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What is perhaps more interesting is that the only genuine surge in support in this election came for the Alliance Party. 

They are a cross-community, non-aligned political group that doesn’t identify as either unionist or nationalist. 

They have taken seats from the so-called ‘soft middle’ ground of the SDLP and UUP, suggesting perhaps that Northern Ireland has more room than ever before for centrist politics without the sectarian tradition of making every issue Green or Orange. 

There is no support in Northern Ireland for returning to the dark days of the Troubles. People are truly fed up of the familiar squabbles and there’s an appetite for change in a different, more practical sense in the here and now. 

Change that will deliver better hospitals, schools, and public services.

Interestingly, Alliance’s success has highlighted a potential problem in Northern Irish politics. 

Remember that rule about the make up of Stormont meaning unionism and nationalism have to share power? 

Well, given Alliance don’t identify either way they technically couldn’t hold either the office of first minister or deputy first minister even if they won the election. And looking at their trajectory that’s not totally unthinkable in the next decade or two. 

To make this election entirely about a border poll that is still a long way off is to miss this significant tidal change that’s just occurred in Northern Ireland, and perhaps a more accurate reflection of what Northern Irish society is telling us the priorities are just now. 

Still, the voices representing the old orange and green divide still shout loudest and given the history on the island of Ireland they still matter. 

Sinn Fein winning in Northern Ireland comes at a time when they are also polling impressively in the Republic of Ireland. It is likely the island of Ireland could soon have Sinn Fein on top on either side of a border they want to abolish. 

This result might not be a starting gun on a vote for a united Ireland, but it will be the beginning of serious conversations about Ireland’s future. 

What we can expect to see are more think tanks and commissioned papers exploring how a united Ireland could work, and how long it would take.

There will be attempts to answer questions on how healthcare would be funded, what would happen to pensions, would people be better or worse off?It’s up to Westminster if wants to engage in a meaningful way or not. But those debates are already happening in Belfast and Dublin.