Sue Gray partygate report could 'end' Boris Johnson as no confidence letters pile up

Political reporter Shehab Khan on whether the longevity of the partygate saga is damaging the PM

Boris Johnson's premiership appears to be hanging in the balance ahead of the local elections on May 5, with several ominous clouds of suspected bad news hanging over the prime minister amid the ongoing partygate scandal.

The notorious 'Sue Gray report' into lockdown-breaking on Downing Street seems so far to pose the biggest threat to Mr Johnson, with a senior official with knowledge of its contents saying it could "end" the PM, according to the Times.

But Ms Gray, the senior civil servant tasked with conducting the initial internal inquiry into Downing Street parties, will not publish her full report until the Metropolitan Police concludes its investigation - by which time Mr Johnson could have received more partygate fines.

Another investigation will be launched as soon as Ms Gray's report is published, this time looking into whether Mr Johnson committed contempt of Parliament by misleading MPs with claims last year that Covid laws were always followed within government.

And the threat of a no confidence vote sparked from Tory backbenches will keep Mr Johnson looking over his shoulder throughout the following weeks.

Plotters could be just eight MPs away from sparking a vote of no confidence in the PM, with reports claiming 46 Tories now want Mr Johnson removed.

If the Conservative Party does not perform well at the upcoming local elections on May 5, it's likely more Tories will join calls for a no confidence vote.

What awaits the PM?

• Sue Gray's report

In her interim report, published before police launched their own investigation, Ms Gray said the behaviour in Downing Street during the pandemic showed there had been “failures of leadership and judgement” in Number 10.

She condemned a "serious failure" in Downing Street to observe coronavirus standards and said "a number" of gatherings should not have been allowed to take place.

But her full report is said to be much more damaging for the prime minister.

According to the Times, an official familiar with the report, said: “Sue’s report is excoriating. It will make things incredibly difficult for the prime minister.

“There’s an immense amount of pressure on her — her report could be enough to end him.”

• Police fines

Mr Johnson has received one fine from police over Covid-rule breaking, but he's being investigated for attending six gatherings in total, meaning five more fines could await him.

He's paid his £50 fine for attending his 56th birthday celebration in June 2020 - as have his wife Carrie and Chancellor Rishi Sunak - but his partygate fixed penalty notice bill could run into the several thousands if he's fined for all the gatherings he attended.

Some Number 10 officials were issued fines last week for attending a party in the Number 10 garden at the height of the first lockdown - Mr Johnson is known to have attended but has so far not received a fine.

He's thought to be the first prime minister to have broken the law during his premiership - however he claims to have been unaware at the time that he was breaking the laws he'd recently set.

The police investigation is thought to have numerous more weeks to run before concluding, with ITV News Political Editor Robert Peston learning that officers still had enquiries to make around some of the events in question.

• MPs' contempt inquiry

A third inquiry into the PM's conduct will be launched as soon as other two have concluded and the findings revealed.

MPs agreed last week that Mr Johnson should be investigated to see whether he lied to Parliament with claims he always followed coronavirus rules during the pandemic.

Those critical of the PM believe police fines prove he misled Parliament with that claim and have instructed the Commons Privileges Committee to investigate.

The committee will investigate several claims Mr Johnson made to the Commons between December 1 and 8, 2021, which include the infamous quote: "the guidance was followed and the rules were followed at all times".

The committee has the power to summon reports and documents, meaning MPs could request a full version of senior civil servant Ms Gray’s inquiry into lockdown breaches as well as photographic evidence.

Mr Johnson could be expelled or suspended from Parliament if the committee decides he did commit contempt by misleading MPs.

• Letters of no confidence

Tory MPs are able to remove their leader through a vote of no confidence, which would be triggered if 15% of the party - 54 MPs - submit letters to the 1922 Committee, outlining how the PM no longer enjoys their support.

Reports claims as many as 46 Tories may have submitted letters, however that cannot be confirmed as committee chairman Sir Graham Brady is bound to keep the figure confidential.

Several senior MPs have revealed they've sent letters, including Mark Harper and Steve Baker, however the number which has gone public is well short of the 54 required.

A secret ballot will follow if 54 letters are submitted and if the PM gets the backing of less than 50% of votes there will be a leadership election where other Tory MPs will be able to try replace him.