Residents brace for war as spectre of Russian invasion hangs over breakaway state of Transnistria

The parallels between Ukraine and Moldova have left many residents in the tiny European nation fearful that Russia could set its sights on them next, reports ITV News Correspondent Peter Smith

Vladimir Putin’s invasion is casting ominous shadows over Moldova, where there are uncomfortable parallels with Ukraine. Moldova too is a former Soviet state. It is not a member of NATO or the EU. It also has a Russian-speaking separatist insurgency to its east. The rogue region of Transnistria detached itself from Moldova in 1992, after a brief but bloody civil war. Officially, it doesn’t exist - its independence is not internationally recognised - and Transnistria has just been recognised by the Council of Europe as an official “area of Russian occupation".

There are 1,300 Russian “peacekeepers” (another term that will be familiar to Ukrainians) currently stationed there. It’s also home to one of Europe’s biggest munition depots, currently storing around 20,000 tonnes of weapons, including guns, bombs, and tanks. The situation is particularly volatile. “We are preparing to run,” Veronica Pisarenco tells me. She lives in Moldova’s capital city of Chisinau. As soon as the Russian invasion began, she packed some bags for her family and now has them sitting in the boot of the car. “You just never know what Putin is going to do next, and if Russia reaches Odesa that’s the cue for my family to leave. We have all our papers ready.” “How can you live in fear like this?” I ask her.

“Living with Transnistria beside you for 30 years is like living with a loaded gun pointed at you all the time - you just never know when it’s going to blow up.” There is a strategic reason for why Russia may be moving west with one eye on Transnistria. It presents Putin with the opportunity to create a Russian-controlled corridor spanning the length of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Ultimately, linking the port-city of Odesa with Transnistria would leave what’s left of Ukraine completely landlocked: cut off from trade routes and humiliated. “There is a Russian military presence in Transnistria, and of course that’s not a comfortable situation for us,” Nicu Popescu, Foreign Minister of Moldova tells me.

“At the same time for the last 30 years, Moldova and the Transnistrian authorities have been engaged in a dialogue - a peaceful dialogue - to try to solve the conflict. “The conflict has not been solved.” After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova’s president said there is no possibility to feel safe in the region. However, Mr Popescu tells me his government has seen nothing to suggest Russian troops are mobilising in Transnistria, preparing for conflict. In fact, the lack of pro-Putin rallies in Transnistria is worth taking note of. The tiny breakaway region might identify as Russian but they could have good reason to keep their heads down. Seven billion good reasons, in fact. $7 billion (£5.3 billion) is the estimated value of the massive debt owed to Russia for gas imports, and many in Moldova told me it would be better for Transnistrian interests if the war next door simply passes them by.

Still, that feeling of being on edge is palpable among the population on both sides of the divide. Our ITV News team visited the village of Varnita which lies in a tense demilitarised zone between Moldova and Transnistria. It’s guarded by military from each side, staffing checkpoints for anyone trying to get from one side to the other. Varnita’s village school is one of few places the two populations still come together in harmony. We meet Claudia Pîslar, a primary school teacher, who is from Transnistria. Her class is split almost exactly 50/50.

“In 1992 many of us here were refugees in Ukraine because of the war - now it’s the other way around,” she says. “The children tell us they fear the war could begin here too. They are worried the Russians will destroy their homes. “I believe if the Russians take Odesa, they won’t stop there. I do think we are going to be next.” A few blocks from the school is the Transnistrian war memorial. It’s covered in snow when we visit, and a lot of fresh flowers have been placed. The dead are remembered; the living aren’t being allowed to forget. Russia’s invasion is now on their doorstep.

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