Covid: Experts modelled tougher coronavirus restrictions being in place until late March
Tough new coronavirus restrictions could be in place until late March under measures looked at by government scientific advisers.
The modelling by experts from Warwick University examined a range of measures, including a ban on socialising with another household indoors and a return to the rule of six outdoors, in line with the Step 2 curbs in place in April in England.
A consensus paper, published on Christmas Eve by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (Spi-M-O), said “rapidly enacted Step 2 measures reduce the peak of hospital pressure to about half its level under Plan B only”.
The modelling has not yet been submitted to ministers for consideration and reports have already downplayed the likelihood of the measures being implemented.
The Warwick research looked at imposing Step 2 restrictions on either December 28 or New Year’s Day and keeping them in place until January 15, 28 or March 28.
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It also included a model examining what impact “non-mandated behaviour change” would have if it reduced mixing by half the amount that Step 2 would achieve.
The Spi-M-O summary of the Warwick modelling said: “A reduction in mixing equivalent to half that of Step 2 results in only a very small reduction in severe outcomes compared to Plan B alone.
“Step 2 has a much larger effect, reducing the number of deaths up to 31st May by 39% (24-54%) if kept in place from December 28 until March 28, and 18% (12-27%) if kept in place until January 15.”
The Warwick modelling has not yet been seen by ministers, who are expected to make a decision early next week, potentially as soon as Monday, on whether extra restrictions are required.
The work was completed before the latest data suggesting the Omicron variant- of which there is 114,625 confirmed cases in the UK- may produce less severe illness than the Delta strain of coronavirus.
Based on a study of approximately 100 people, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said on Thursday that compared to those infected with the Delta variant, people with Omicron are 50% to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital.
UK Health Security Agency chief executive Dr Jenny Harries said the data suggesting Omicron may be less likely to lead to serious illness than the Delta variant offers a “glimmer of Christmas hope”.
But she warned that it is too early to downgrade the threat from the new strain, which is still spreading rapidly across the UK.
Taking a similar view, Health Secretary Sajid Javid described the data as "promising"- but warned cases of the variant are continuing to rise "at an extraordinary rate", with data continuing to be monitored "hour by hour".
The PM has said the government is poised to "take action" after the 25 December if needed.
On Friday, the UK recorded its highest ever number of Covid cases- 122,186- for the third day in a row as the pandemic caused chaos for Christmas plans across the country.
Minutes from a meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on December 23 noted “the peak in (hospital) admissions is highly uncertain but, even with a reduction in severity, may be comparable to or higher than previous peaks in the absence of significant behaviour change or further interventions”.
The minutes said “the earlier interventions happen, and the more stringent they are, the more likely they are to be effective”.
Any move to return to the kind of lockdown restrictions in Step 2 would be likely to meet with fierce resistance from Tory backbenchers.
The Prime Minister suffered a revolt by around 100 MPs just to get England’s current Plan B measures approved.
The risk of another rebellion could encourage him to rely on guidance to reduce socialising rather than new laws, if ministers believe extra measures are required.