Europe’s record summer temperatures ‘impossible’ without climate change

Last summer, forecasters recorded temperatures close to 1C above the 1991 to 2020 average across Europe. Credit: PA

Europe’s hottest summer on record would not have happened without human-induced climate change, the Met Office has said.

Last summer, forecasters recorded temperatures close to 1 degree Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average across Europe.

During the record-breaking hot spell, a new European maximum temperature record was set in Syracuse, Sicily, where temperatures reached 48.8C, beating the previous European high of 48C recorded in Athens in 1977.


ITV News Reporter Martha Fairlie reported in August on the rising temperatures across Europe and the impact of climate change


Scientists then analysed data by using a large collection of computer simulations to compare the climate as it is today - with about 1C of global warming - with the climate as it would have been without human influence, using the same methods as in past peer-reviewed studies.

They concluded the spike in temperatures would have been “impossible” without human-induced climate change.

The researchers added that without climate change, the rise would have taken place only once in 10,000 years.



Met Office climate attribution scientist, Dr Nikos Christidis, who led the analysis, said: “This latest attribution study is another example of how climate change is already making our weather extremes more severe.

"Our analysis of the European summer of 2021 shows that what is now a one in three-year event would have been almost impossible without human-induced climate change”.


Wildfires raged across parts of Greece in August as the country endured its worst heatwave in decades


Science fellow Professor Peter Stott, who researches climate attribution at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: “We can be more confident than we’ve ever been about linking extreme weather events to climate change.

“The increasing chances of these extreme events continue to rise as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases. The science is clear that the faster we reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases, the more we can avoid the most severe impacts of climate change”.


The COP27 climate conference - what you need to know

What is COP27? When and where will it be?

Each year, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meets at what is called the Conference of the Parties (abbreviated as COP) to discuss the world's progress on climate change and how to tackle it.

COP27 is the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties summit which will be held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt from November 6-18.

Who is going?

Leaders of the 197 countries that signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - a treaty that came into force in 1994 - are invited to the summit.

These are some of the world leaders that will be attending COP27:

  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is attending the conference, after initially saying he wouldn't as he was too busy focusing on the economy within his first weeks in office.

  • US President Joe Biden and his experienced climate envoy, John Kerry, will appear at the talks.

  • France President Emmanuel Macron will also be among the heads of state from around the world staying in Egypt.

King Charles III will not be attending COP27, despite being a staunch advocate for the environment. The decision was made jointly by Buckingham Palace and former prime minister Liz Truss.

Elsewhere, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will not attend the talks just as they decided to do for COP26.

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What is it hoping to achieve?

1. Ensure full implementation of the Paris Agreement and putting negotiations into concrete actions - included within this is the target of limiting global warming to well below 2C.

2. Cementing progress on the critical workstreams of mitigation, adaptation, finance and loss and damage, while stepping up finance notably to tackle the impacts of climate change.

3. Enhancing the delivery of the principles of transparency and accountability throughout the UN Climate Change process.

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The new analysis comes as leaders and policy makers from across the world come together for negotiations at COP26 in Glasgow. Several countries have outlined pledges at the conference, including India, which announced it would cut emissions to net zero by 2070, China, which has said it will achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 and a net zero commitment by 2050 from Vietnam. Scientists have said there needs to be a global goal to cut emissions to net zero by 2050 to avoid temperature rises above 1.5C and to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.