Covid wave 'may not peak until September' but England's lockdown easing 'right' to go ahead
ITV News Correspondent Neil Connery reports on the concerns - and anticipation - ahead of July 19
A government minister has told ITV News the current wave of Covid infections sweeping through the country may not peak until "late August, possibly even early September".
Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick warned of "challenging days ahead" with both cases and hospitalisations rising.
He was speaking less than 24 hours before the majority of Covid restrictions in England are eased in Stage 4 of lockdown easing, otherwise known as "freedom day".
It comes as a top scientific advisor warned it is "almost inevitable" that coronavirus infections will reach 100,000 daily cases alongside 1,000 people admitted to hospital a day.
Coronavirus: What you need to know - listen to the latest episode
Mr Jenrick said it was still "right" to move forward with lockdown easing in England.
He told ITV News the two tests - fully vaccinating two thirds of the adult population, and offering at least one jab to all adults in the country - had been met.
But there are words of caution among scientists and health experts who warn an irreversible easing of lockdown could see infections surge.
Asked where the country was heading amid the lifting of restrictions, Professor Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show: "It’s very difficult to say for certain, but I think 100,000 cases a day is almost inevitable."
He highlighted that the relaxation of measures coincided with the start of school holidays, which will probably see contact rates among teenagers "tick down".
While emphasising it was "very difficult to make precise predictions", Prof Ferguson said: "I think it’s almost certain we’ll get to 1,000 hospitalisations per day.
Lockdown rules in England: What's changing from July 19
What has happened to social distancing and the rule of six?
What has happened to social distancing and the rule of six?
The 'one metre plus' rule has been scrapped entirely, as of July 19 in England. However, some guidance to maintain social distancing in certain situations will remain in place of the legal restrictions.
Social distancing guidance will continue if someone is Covid positive and self-isolating, or in airports, or other ports of entry, to avoid travellers arriving from amber or red-list countries mixing with those from green list areas.
Limits on social contact in England have disappeared, meaning the end of the rule of six indoors and the limit of 30 people for outdoor gatherings.
Do I still need to wear a face mask?
Do I still need to wear a face mask?
There is now no legal requirements to wear face coverings - but guidance still encourages using masks in some settings, including hospitals, healthcare settings and in crowded enclosed public spaces.
Has the working from home guidance changed?
Has the working from home guidance changed?
The guidance on working from home has gone. It's ultimately down to employers to decide whether to keep staff at home or in the office, but the government say employers are able to plan the return of staff to the workplace.
What about weddings and funerals?
What about weddings and funerals?
The current limits on numbers of people who can attend weddings, funerals and other life events has ended.
What's happening in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland?
What's happening in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland?
The changes to Covid rules announced by Boris Johnson, only impact England and will not change regulations in Northern Ireland, Wales or Scotland.
The Welsh Government “would like to move together” with other parts of the UK in lifting coronavirus restrictions but will only do so if it is “right for Wales”, health minister Eluned Morgan said on Monday 5 July.
As of July 19, restrictions in Scotland have eased, with all areas of the country moving to level 0. The government is aiming to lift all major restrictions in Scotland by August 9.
In Northern Ireland, some significant restrictions have already been eased including allowing the resumption of live music and the lifting of caps on organised outdoor gatherings.
"It’ll almost certainly get to 100,000 cases a day. The real question is, do we get to double that or even higher? And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. We could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day, but it’s much less certain."
Despite the majority of the adult population having received a vaccination, question marks remain about extending the jab to under-18s.
Mr Jenrick said the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) will be advising ministers shortly on vaccinations for children.
He told Sky News’s Trevor Phillips on Sunday programme: "We will be looking carefully at their advice when we receive it – we expect it very soon – on whether or not we should open up the vaccine programme in the first instance to those children who are just short of their 18th birthday, to those children who have particular vulnerabilities and those children who are in households where there are people who are particularly vulnerable.
"That seems a sensible way for us to proceed but ministers will have to make that decision when they are armed with the final advice from the JCVI."
It comes amid confusion after the government's screeching U-turn on whether or not Boris Johnson and Rishi Suna would be self-isolating following contact from the NHS Test and Trace.
Both were 'pinged' after health secretary Sajid Javid tested positive for the virus.
Initially the government said the pair were partially exempt as they were part of a pilot scheme that allowed them to continue essential activities.
Just three hours later, however, a second statement was put out to say both would now be fully isolating.