Covid infection rate rose to one in 95 last week in England as coronavirus cases surge
Is it really safe for everything in England to open up on Monday? ITV News Political Correspondent Libby Wiener reports.
More than half a million people in England are likely to have had Covid-19 last week, with the number of infections at the same levels as February, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
About 577,700 people are estimated to have been infected in the week ending July 10, and it is the highest number since the week to February 6.
This equates to one in 95 of the community population in England, those living in private households, excluding those in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. This is up from one in 160 people in the previous week.
It comes as Professor Chris Whitty warned that the number of Covid hospitalisations were doubling every three weeks and could hit "scary numbers" in future.
And senior minister Lucy Frazer said on Thursday morning the government could consider reimplementing Covid restrictions in England if the spread of the virus becomes “unacceptable”.
In Scotland, it is estimated that 60,000 people, or around one in 90 people - up from one in 100 in the previous week.
It is the highest level since the ONS infection survey began in Scotland at the end of October 2020.
The percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 has been increasing in the days over last week in England and Scotland.
In Wales, the trend is more uncertain, the ONS says. The statistics agency estimates that around 8,400 people, or one in 360 people, were infected with coronavirus last week. This is broadly unchanged from one in 340 in the previous week and close to levels last seen at the beginning of March.
And in Northern Ireland, around 6,300 people were likely to have been infected - equating to one in 290 people.
Again, this is broadly unchanged from one in 300 in the previous week and close to levels last seen at the end of March.
Where is Covid spreading in England?
The percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 is also estimated to have increased in all regions in England.
The North East had the highest proportion of any region, with an estimated one in 40 people being infected with coronavirus. The North West had the second highest estimate: around one in 55.
And the South East had the lowest estimate: around one in 220.
Infection rates have also increased for all age groups. Around one in 35 people from school year 12 to age 24 are estimated to have had Covid-19 in the week to July 10, the highest positivity rate for any age group.
The ONS added that around one third of those required to self-isolate after contact with a positive case reported developing symptoms.
Numbers of the Delta variant in the UK have risen by 36,800 since last week to a total of 253,049, according to Public Health England.
This represents a 17% increase, with the Delta variant accounting for around 99% of cases across the UK.
Of the 253,049 cases, 209,926 have been in England, 32,708 in Scotland, 5,601 in Wales and 4,814 in Northern Ireland.
The Delta variant continues to account for approximately 99% of confirmed Covid cases across the UK.
The R number, or coronavirus reproduction number, in England is between 1.2 and 1.4 - it has not changed from last week.
The R value represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect. When it is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially and when it is below 1, it means the number of infections is decreasing.
Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, said: "Case rates are still high and rising, but it is encouraging that the increase in cases still does not appear to be associated with a similar increase in hospitalisations and deaths.
"This is testament to the continued success of the vaccination programme in reducing the incidence of severe disease."
Some scientists have vehemently opposed the unlocking next week, with many suggesting people should still wear face masks after 19 July to help reduce the chances of transmission of the virus.According to the ONS figures, almost two thirds of adults say they will continue wearing face coverings in shops and on public transport when this is no longer a legal requirement.
Chris Whitty warns the number of Covid hospitalisations could hit 'scary numbers' in future
England's Chief Medical Officer Prof Whitty urged for caution ahead of the lifting of restrictions in England on Monday, saying the UK is "not out of the woods yet".
Speaking to an online seminar hosted by the Science Museum on Thursday evening, Prof Whitty said: “I don’t think we should underestimate the fact that we could get into trouble again surprisingly fast.”
"We are not by any means out of the woods yet on this, we are in much better shape due to the vaccine programme, and drugs and a variety of other things. But this has got a long way to run in the UK, and it’s got even further to run globally.”
He added: "I think saying the numbers in hospital are low now, that does not mean the numbers will be low in hospital in five, six, seven, eight weeks' time.
"They could actually be really quite serious.
"At that point, if it looks as though things are not topping out, we do have to look again and see where we think things are going."
Conservative MP Lucy Frazer, warned people about the possibility of reimplementing coronavirus restrictions if the situation becomes “unacceptable”.
Speaking to Sky News, she said: “The reason why restrictions are being taken away is because of the vaccination programme, which will protect people when those infections do rise.
“Of course, if we get into a situation where it is unacceptable and we do need to put back further restrictions, then that of course is something the government will look at.”