Covid lockdown easing could 'go backwards' if Indian variant spreads faster, says expert
Professor Neil Ferguson explains what will determine whether we go forward with relaxing restrictions or back
England's lockdown easing could "go backwards" if the Indian variant is found to be more transmissible, a leading scientist has warned.
This week, pubs and restaurants reopened indoors in England as part of the latest stage of reopening the country – with a return to virtually full normality no sooner than June 21.
But Imperial College London epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson told ITV’s Peston show the country’s progress depends on the variant’s transmissibility and the vaccine’s efficacy against it.
“So whether we go forward with relaxation, or in some areas, or indeed nationally we have to go backwards a little at least temporarily, will very much depend on the questions we've been discussing,” he said
“On exactly how much more transmissible this new variant is, and the extent to which it reduces the effectiveness of vaccines. And we can't be definitive about either of those things at the moment.
“So, I mean, there are a number of scenarios which are possible and we are, you know, very urgently trying to pin down which scenario is going to be most likely.
“And science is never going to be a definitive thing on this timescale. What we are doing is building up evidence gradually over time to allow us to make a more informed decision nationally.”
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Deputy chief medical officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said at a Downing Street briefing earlier on Wednesday that scientists will know more about the transmissibility of the new variant by next week.
In the meantime, seven areas have been marked for surge testing and faster vaccination as the government tries to curb the spread of the variant.
To that end, it may be “feasible” to mix vaccines to boost immunity, Prof Ferguson added.
“A number of studies have just started reporting results of mixing doses between different vaccines, and they look very encouraging so far.” He said.
“A Spanish study reported just in the last 48 hours and that showed by mixing doses, after the second dose you got a much higher antibody response.
“So, what we know is that the Pfizer and Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines are very similar in the immune response after the first dose, but after the second dose, people who get Pfizer or Moderna get a higher antibody level than people who get AstraZeneca.
“So, I think it's an entirely feasible strategy to boost immunity through a kind of second Pfizer or Moderna dose, and potentially the other way round.
“You know if somebody's got Pfizer first, AstraZeneca is likely to be highly effective at boosting their immunity too.”
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