Covid: R number remains below 1 at between 0.6 and 0.9 across the UK

Credit: PA

The coronavirus R (reproduction) number, or R value remains below 1 - unchanged from the previous week - between 0.6 and 0.9.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect - when that figure is above 1.0, an outbreak can grow exponentially.


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When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially, but when it is below 1 it means the epidemic is shrinking.

An R number between 0.6 and 0.9 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between six and nine other people.

The estimates for R and the growth rate are provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

UCLAN covid testing hub Credit: ITV Granada

SAGE said the estimates are based on the latest data, available up to 22 February, including hospitalisations and deaths, as well as symptomatic testing and prevalence studies.

They added: "These estimates represent the transmission of Covid-19 over the past few weeks.

"However, as R is a lagging indicator, these estimates cannot account for the most recent policy changes, nor changes in transmission that have not yet been reflected in epidemiological data."

The data release is further evidence that the nationwide lockdown is reducing the number of Covid-19 infections.

The ranges for the growth rates and R number have narrowed for the UK England and most regions, experts said, which reflects greater certainty around the estimates.

Here's a breakdown of how the R value and growth rate compare across the country.


Regional R Numbers

  • England - 0.7 to 0.9

  • East of England - 0.6 to 0.8

  • London - 0.6 to 0.8

  • Midlands - 0.7 to 0.9

  • North East and Yorkshire - 0.7 to 0.9

  • North West - 0.7 to 0.9

  • South East - 0.7 to 0.9

  • South West - 0.6 to 0.8 

If the R number is 1.1, it means each person with coronavirus is passing it to 1.1 people.

The growth rate of coronavirus transmission reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day.

Regional growth rates

  • England -5 to -3

  • East of England -7 to -4

  • London -8 to -5

  • Midlands -6 to -3

  • North East and Yorkshire -5 to -2

  • North West -6 to -2

  • South East -5 to -2

  • South West -7 to -4


Learn more about Covid-19 and the vaccines on ITV News' Coronavirus: What You Need To Know podcast