Economy surged out of recession in third quarter, but took another hit as second lockdown loomed

Here's what the latest figures tell us


The UK economy rebounded out of recession between July and September with a record 15.5% growth.

But that recovery took a hit in September - even before stricter Covid lockdown measures were introduced across the UK.

The initial boost to the economy marked the highest third-quarter growth since records began in 1955, according to the Office for National Statistics.

As restrictions eased after the spring lockdown, the economy bounce back from the 19.5% contraction in the second quarter - which plunged the UK into a record-breaking recession.

Andy Burnham said money for the Eat Out To Help Out scheme should have been used to support businesses forced to close. Credit: PA

But month-on-month growth slowed to 1.1% in September as the government’s Eat Out To Help Out hospitality-boosting scheme ended, and the ONS revealed that GDP was still 8.2% below levels seen in February before the Covid crisis struck.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak - who brought in the scheme - said the figures showed "recovery" over summer but acknowledged that slowed "going into autumn".

"The steps we’ve had to take since to halt the spread of the virus mean growth has likely slowed further since then.

"But there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic on the health side – including promising news on tests and vaccines."

People eating and drinking on Soho in central London before England's second national lockdown. Credit: PA

The chancellor warned: "There are still hard times ahead, but we will continue to support people through this and ensure nobody is left without hope or opportunity."

While the ONS figures revealed that gross domestic product (GDP) was still 9.7% below pre-crisis levels.

Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician at the ONS, warned: "While all main sectors of the economy continued to recover, the rate of growth slowed again, with the economy still remaining well below its pre-pandemic peak."

"The return of children to school boosted activity in the education sector."

Boarded up bars in Soho, London, during the four week national lockdown for England Credit: Yui Mok/PA

Mr Athow added: "Housebuilding also continued to recover while business strengthened for lawyers and accountants after a poor August.

"However, pubs and restaurants saw less business after the Eat Out To Help Out scheme ended, and accommodation saw less business after a successful summer."

What more do the figures tell us?

The latest data release from the ONS shows September's slowdown was more severe than expected, with a "loss in momentum across all main sectors" since June.

With England's second national lockdown, and tougher Covid measures across the rest of the UK, experts are forecasting a sharp fall in GDP across November prompting fears of a double-dip recession.

A deserted high street in Bath as England enters its second national lockdown Credit: Ben Birchall/PA

The pound was 0.3% lower at 1.32 US dollars and 0.4% down at 1.1 euros after the data. The Bank of England last week forecast the economy will shrink by 2% in the final quarter of the year.

The Bank believes the UK will avoid plunging back into recession, however, pencilling in growth of 2.4% in the first quarter of 2021.

But the economy’s performance will, as ever, depend heavily on how restrictions to control the spread of the virus might change - the balance of health and economy is something the government has discussed.

How did different sectors fare?

The services sector - which accounts for around three quarters of UK output - grew by 14.2% in the third quarter.

But on a monthly bases, that growth slowed significantly to 1% in September - a drop from 2.4% in August.

Overall the sector remains 8.8% lower than in February, in pre-pandemic times.

There was however a small boost for production, including manufacturing, and construction with 0.5% and 2.9% expansion respectively in September.