Donald Trump, America's 45th President, is staring at the prospect of ultimate ignominy, writes Robert Moore
Three American presidents have faced impeachment proceedings.
Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton. Nixon resigned before a vote could be taken. Johnson and Clinton were impeached but not convicted.
Now, most likely, add a fourth.
America’s 45th President, Donald J Trump, is staring at the prospect of the ultimate ignominy.
The reason for this sudden twist is because America’s most powerful woman has made her long awaited move.
Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, has come off the fence. She has now made clear she backs an urgent impeachment investigation.
If that goes according to plan, and finds evidence of corruption (or “high crimes and misdemeanours”) by Trump, the House of Representatives will vote for Articles of Impeachment. And then the trial of Trump will take place in the Senate.
All eyes will be on Republican Senators. Will they circle the wagons around Trump? Or will enough of them side with Democrats and agree to evict Trump from the White House?
A quick explainer on what triggered this:
On July 25, there was a fateful phone call between Trump and the new Ukrainian President.
Trump asked Zelensky to investigate the son of Joe Biden. The younger Biden was involved in business in Ukraine.
To Democrats, this request was an outrage: it was a US President asking a foreign leader to find dirt on a political opponent.
But more than that, it appears that Trump may have been delaying a $400 million arms deal with Ukraine until he had heard whether Biden’s son was indeed being probed.
That smells and looks like a dirt-for-weapons scandal that would almost certainly see Trump’s impeachment. (Remember, being impeached is not the same as being convicted and driven out of the White House).
So this is a moment of high drama for America. Impeachment is an extreme measure. It is a national trauma. It could tear the country apart given its current tribal political culture.
But that’s where things are heading. It’s not just Britain heading towards the cliff edge.
Perhaps impeachment will take place on October 31st and then the people of Britain and the US can both fasten their seat belts on the same day.
What Next?
There are many uncertainties as Democrats press ahead with impeachment investigations. But this is likely to be the road ahead:
Six Congressional committees are already probing Trump and feeding their findings to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Today Trump has promised to release a full transcript of his July 25th phone call with the Ukrainian president.
At 9pm today (UK time) Trump will hold a press conference, likely a fierce attack on his political opponents.
In the next few days, the White House will let the whistleblower testify to Congress. This is the intelligence official who told bosses of his or her deep concern about Trump’s conduct.
At some point the House of Representatives will likely vote on formal Articles of Impeachment. It is likely to pass since Democrats control the House.
Then the Senate would hold a trial of Trump. Republicans control the Senate, and it takes two-thirds of members to convict, so it would take extraordinary revelations for Trump to be found guilty.