Next winter will be coldest in England for a decade, scientists predict
Britain should be braced for the coldest winter in a decade, scientists have said.
An extended-range forecast for central England predicts temperatures could plunge next January and February, trumping even 2018's Beast from the East, which caused widespread disruption.
The cold snap is linked to the jet stream that determines the winter temperature, precipitation and windspeeds.
The team of scientists at the Department of Space and Climate Physics University College London studied solar and stratosphere cyclic signals from summer 2019 to determine just how cold the coming winter months will be.
Recent UK winters have varied widely from cold and snowy with an average of 2.1°C in 2010 to 6°C, wet, mild and stormy in 2014.
With average temperatures of 3.9°C, the UCL's data predicts that next January and February will be the coldest since 2010 and one of the coldest since records began in 1953, with only a "20% chance" that temperatures will rise above a chilly 5°C during the first two months of next year.
The paper is one of the longest range forecasts ever and researchers hope that their predictions will help Britain be better prepared for a freezing winter.
The Beast from the East - a blast of Siberian weather that swept in over Britain in late winter 2018 - shut down construction sites, kept shoppers away from the high street and caused widespread travel chaos which led the Bank of England to cut its growth forecast for the UK economy.
The report authors, Mark Saunders, Adam Lea and John Smallwood said: "Our forecast will benefit decision making through improved anticipation of upcoming risk. The performance of much of UK industry is ‘weather sensitive’ and especially to cold winters.