Brexit Party and Change UK will fade within a decade – poll

Nigel Farage’s newly formed Brexit Party and Change UK will “eventually fade” from British politics within a decade, according to a new poll.

A YouGov survey revealed 63% of people thought the Brexit Party would “probably not be a force in British politics in 10 years”, compared to 13% who thought it was here to stay.

Approximately 56% thought Change UK would disappear over the next decade, with just one in 10 (10%) believing it will “likely remain an important part of British politics”.

Some 70% thought Labour would continue to exist in 10 years, with 71% believing the Tories would survive the next decade, and just under half, 45%, thinking the Lib Dems were here to stay.

The poll found the Green Party was seen as the third most likely to still be around in 2029.

YouGov political research manager Chris Curtis said: “The upcoming European Parliament elections will be the first outing for two brand new parties: Change UK – The Independent Group and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.

“The data shows the public aren’t yet convinced that these newer forces will become a permanent feature in British politics, although both these parties will be hoping to prove the public wrong, and a strong showing in next week’s election could give them momentum and help them stand out in an increasingly crowded field.”

YouGov polled 1,867 adults between April 30 and May 1.

The new findings came as a general election poll found the Brexit Party had overtaken the Tories for the first time.

Mr Farage’s party was one point ahead of the Conservatives in what would be the Tories’ worst ever result, according to the ComRes survey of voting intentions.

That level of support would see the Brexit Party win 49 seats, becoming the UK’s second biggest party after Labour, with 137.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, described the findings as a “disaster”, adding: “If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.”

The news in the Sunday Telegraph followed the calamitous council elections, where Theresa May oversaw the loss of nearly 1,300 Tory councillors, and came ahead of a predicted wipeout in the European elections in the next fortnight.

The poll showed the Conservatives would lose 46 seats to the Brexit Party, dethroning Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt, Health Secretary Matt Hancock and party chairman Brandon Lewis.

And Labour would take the scalps of Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith and Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, with the Tories retaining support from less than half of those who voted for them in 2017.

Jeremy Corbyn would be able to lead a minority government with 27% support, leaving the Brexit Party with 20% and the Conservatives 19% support, according to the poll commissioned by Brexit Express.

Brexit Express is a campaign group run by Jeremy Hosking, a major Tory donor who has now given £200,000 to Mr Farage’s party.

The ComRes poll chimed with another recent poll by Opinium, which showed the Brexit Party snapping at the Tories’ heels in a Westminster election, where they would be just one point behind.

According to Opinium, Labour would be out in front with 28% support, followed by the Tories on 22% and the Brexit Party on 21%.

The two main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, continue to drop votes, with Labour falling five points and the Tories four in the last fortnight.

But the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats are reaping the rewards of public frustration and are both on the up, with the former rising five points and the latter four – taking the Lib Dems to fourth place with 11 points.

When it comes to the European elections, the Brexit Party is galloping ahead into first place with 34% support – doubling the existing gap to 13 points.

Labour, coming second with 21%, has fallen seven points in the last fortnight and the Lib Dems are in third position with 12%, having risen five points.

The Tories have dropped another three points to stagger into fourth place with 11% support.

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,004 UK adults between May 8 and 10 and results have been weighted.