Why are India and Pakistan at loggerheads 72 years after partition?

Kashmiri villagers gather to look at the wreckage of an Indian aircraft. Credit: Mukhtar Khan/AP

Nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan face their worst tension in years over the disputed region of Kashmir, with Islamabad saying it shot down two Indian warplanes on Wednesday and captured two pilots.

Pakistan immediately shut down its civilian airspace in response.

Tension has existed since both countries emerged as separate entities from British colonial rule with partition marked by inter-ethnic bloodletting.

  • What started the latest tension?

On February 14, a suicide car bomber attacked a paramilitary convoy on the Indian-controlled side of Kashmir in the Himalayas, killing more than 40 troops.

The militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed, which is based in Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.

The suicide bomber was from Indian Kashmir.

New Delhi has accused Pakistan of cultivating such groups, something denied by Islamabad.

India launched an airstrike on Pakistani territory early on Tuesday that New Delhi called a pre-emptive strike against militant camps in Pakistan.

India said its bombs killed a “very large number” of militants, while Pakistan said there were no casualties in an airstrike it described as being carried out “in haste”.

  • Why is the tension so dangerous?

Both India and Pakistan are believed to possess more than 100 nuclear warheads each and have conducted atomic weapon tests.

Both countries have test-fired nuclear-capable missiles.

Pakistan has also refused to renounce a first-strike option with its atomic bombs should it feel outgunned in a conventional war.

An Indian Air Force MIG 29 releases bombs during an air exercise. Credit: Manish Swarup/AP

It takes less than four minutes for a missile fired from Pakistan to reach India.

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists warns that “computer models have predicted that the physical impacts of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, or even a single strike on a large city, would be devastating and would reverberate throughout the world”.

  • How did the dispute over Kashmir begin?

When Britain granted independence to the region in 1947, it divided the Indian subcontinent into a predominantly Hindu India and mostly Muslim Pakistan.

Some areas could decide their own fate.

In Kashmir, the only Muslim majority area ruled by a Hindu monarch, its ruler decided against giving the population a choice.

That started the first India-Pakistan war in 1947.

A prince and a maharajah during colonial rule in 1922. Credit: PA

The conflict ended in 1949 when a United Nations resolution established the Line of Control dividing Kashmir between the two nations and calling for a direct vote on which country should control it.

That vote has never been held.

Indian and Pakistan fought a second war over Kashmir in 1965.

  • What has happened since?

India and Pakistan fought a third war in 1971 over what was East Pakistan, which later became Bangladesh.

In 1999 and 2000, after Pakistan’s military sent a ground force into Indian-controlled Kashmir at Kargil, the two countries faced off and a worried world urged both to pull back from the brink of war, fearing it could escalate into a nuclear conflict.

Even in times of relative peace the two nations readily engage in brinkmanship and aggressive rhetoric.

  • How do the militaries of India and Pakistan compare?

India, home to 1.3 billion people, has a conventional army of about 1.4 million soldiers.

Pakistan, with a population of over 200 million people, has about 650,000 troops.

Both countries have spent billions over the years developing conventional arms.

The Wagah border crossing from India into Pakistan during a visit by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan Credit: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Last year, Pakistan spent about 11 billion US dollars or about 3.6% of its gross domestic product on defence.

India meanwhile allocated about 58 billion US dollars, or 2.1% of its GDP on defence, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

India’s ballooning military spending has propelled it to the world’s fifth-biggest defence spender, surpassing the United Kingdom, according to the IISS.

  • How is Pakistan reacting?

Pakistan, which has a history of military coups and strong-arm rule from those tied to its intelligence services, has largely reacted to this conflict through its civilian government.

Foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi took the lead to condemn the airstrike on Tuesday, painting India as an aggressor who would suffer repercussions, without elaborating.

Former cricketer Imran Khan is Pakistan’s prime minister Credit: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Mr Qureshi also accused Indian prime minister Narendra Modi of playing with regional stability to get votes in upcoming national elections.

Pakistan’s prime minister, former cricketer Imran Khan, has called for a joint meeting of Pakistan’s upper and lower houses of parliament.

Public criticism of India has been loud across Pakistani media, with sporadic protests against New Delhi breaking out across the country.

  • How is India reacting?

Indian government officials called the airstrike on Tuesday a counter-terrorism operation based on credible intelligence that another attack against India was imminent.

The tensions could be a boon for Mr Modi, whose Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party aims to maintain power in the upcoming elections.

Supporters of a Pakistani religious group hold a rally against India Credit: K.M. Chaudary/AP

The airstrike appears to have temporarily insulated the Modi government from criticism about it failing to create as many jobs as pledged in the 2014 elections.

Opposition party leaders have responded with support for India’s air force.

Meanwhile, Mr Modi earned points with the powerful Hindu nationalist social group, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, or RSS.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat said on Tuesday: “Truth and non-violence are fine, but the world understands the language of power.”