Why this is the most perilous moment of Donald Trump's presidency

The President possesses legendary resilience. He commands the loyalty of millions of supporters who judge him to be a once-in-a-lifetime leader. Donald Trump is overseeing a roaring economy, with unemployment at historic lows and a stock market that has soared.

And yet this morning he faces the most perilous moment of his presidency. Indeed, for a brief time last night, with the TV networks hyperventilating and two damaging court cases unfolding simultaneously, it was possible to believe this was the beginning of the end.

It is certainly serious. Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer and fixer, pleaded guilty to multiple charges of fraud and campaign finance violations. Crucially, he told the court that the payments he made to two of Trump’s accusers were done in “coordination with and at the direction” of the President.

Michael Cohen admitted charges of fraud and campaign finance violations. Credit: AP

The money was used to buy the women’s silence and to save his presidential campaign. By any reasonable interpretation, if Cohen committed a crime then so did Trump.

Let that sink in. In the view of many legal observers, Trump committed a federal crime to win the presidency. NBC News declared last night that “there hasn't been a darker moment for a president — or for the presidency — since Richard Nixon resigned on the verge of impeachment in 1974".

At exactly the same time - unfolding as a split screen on cable channels - Paul Manafort was found guilty on eight charges of bank and tax fraud. Trump’s former campaign chairman could face decades behind bars.

Paul Manafort was found guilty of eight financial crimes. Credit: Alexandria Detention Center via AP

But do not write Trump’s political obituary quite yet. Three elements may help him weather the legal and political storm engulfing him:

  • There is no sign that Republican leaders in Congress are abandoning him. With just 75 days to go before the Congressional midterm elections they dare not discard the leader who reaches deep into white working class and evangelical communities.

  • There is still no sign that Mueller has found the killer evidence that unambiguously links the Trump campaign to Kremlin agents. The central allegation of Russian collusion is unproven.

  • And finally - as was clear at a West Virginia campaign rally last night - his most loyal supporters have not lost their faith in Trump. They do not see a wounded or criminal president. They see a biased media and a corrupt Deep State.

But there is also no doubt that half way through Trump's first term we are at a critical moment. Two former allies are facing long jail sentences; one has implicated him. Mueller is circling and emboldened. Democrats scent blood.

The outcome we cannot know. But the stakes are clear: The showdown is approaching and the American republic is facing its greatest challenge for over 40 years.

Credit: AP