May’s courageous reshuffle

Theresa May’s reshuffle – which will take place today and tomorrow – is all about domestic-policy change and Brexit continuity.

In the Cabinet, the dismissals and changes will all be in the middle and lower ranks, and will be extensive. There will be around four sackings, but the job changes will be many more, affecting perhaps half of the middle to lower cabinet.

However all will keep their jobs right at the top of the cabinet – viz the incumbents as Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary and Brexit Secretary will not change.

Why are those at the top safe?

“It’s because we’re in the middle of negotiations to leave the EU, and we’re about to get into the big economic and security issues, so it would be wrong to change those intimately involved in the economic and security decisions” said a well-placed source.

That’s the sanitised version. A reason that reflects less well on May is that she’s not strong enough to risk sending to the backbenches any minister who could foment serious discontent with her (it’s worth noting the rumour that the newly knighted head of the Tories’ 1922 Committee of backbench MPs Graham Brady is sitting on rather more letters from MPs calling for her to quit than is commonly understood).

Confirmation of the cabinet changes will come later today.

On Tuesday there’ll be a fairly extensive overhaul of the middle and lower ranks of government, when supposedly bright new talent from the backbenches will be given their big breaks.

“In a way those changes to junior jobs will be more important and more interesting, because they’ll put the spotlight on who are thought to be the coming generation of Conservative stars” said a minister. “It’ll be a chance to test tomorrow’s potential leaders”.

The Cabinet reshuffle will be designed to make good on the prime minister’s pledge to improve the fortunes of British people on lower incomes, to restore momentum and imagination to a domestic policy agenda which has had the life sucked out of it by the massive challenge of delivering Brexit.

Senior government members for example expect a new Cabinet-ranked post of Housing Minister to be created, to reinvigorate attempts to tackle the shortage of affordable homes.

So who’s in and who’s out?

Justine Greening seems to be a dead minister walking at the Department for Education.

Her crimes?

“Senior backbench MPs are still fuming at the way she killed the plan to open new grammar schools” said one of her colleagues. “And my goodness she goes on and on at Cabinet. The annoyance on the prime minister’s face when Justine won’t stop talking is quite a picture”.

Greg Clark, the business secretary, looks to be on his way out – because “he’s too secretive and is said to be a ditherer”, said a source.

The party chairman, Patrick McLoughlin, will be axed – because if the prime minister hasn’t taken personal responsibility for the Tories’ lacklustre performance in last year’s election, he’ll be forced to do so.

Also Andrea Leadsom is expected to be replaced as leader of the House of Commons: she attracts too much attention for the prime minister’s taste, and often for the wrong reasons, said one of their colleagues.

Why the reshuffle now? Well she had to appoint at least one new cabinet minister, following her decision to sack her de facto number two Damian Green as First Secretary just before Christmas, for the untruths he told about what he knew of a police probe into porn on his computer.

For what it’s worth, it looks as though Green’s cabinet office responsibilities – including liaising with the governments of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales on Brexit – will go to a new minister. But his grand title and role as effective deputy prime minister is expected to go into abeyance.

Anyway, here’s the big point. Having made the mistake of calling an election last year that cost her party its parliamentary majority, this reshuffle is May’s one and only chance to prove she’s in power as well as in office.

If she pulls it off, she can be confident of remaining prime minister for at least another year, perhaps longer. Fluff it, and the patience of her party will be almost exhausted.