Ministers reject their own immigration policy paper

One of ministers' Pavlovian swaggers when criticised about almost anything is to point out that the unemployment rate is back to levels we haven't seen since 1975: the PM spurted as such only today at PMQs.

Which is all rather wonderful - except it also explains why companies big and small are a bit anxious about the leaked Home Office plan to crack down on immigration from the rest of the EU after Brexit, especially immigration of those with low skills.

Building firms, supermarket chains and farmers are especially concerned that they would not be able to get the staff.

They would say this is an example of the government doing exactly the opposite of the Johnsonian activity of having and eating cake; it would be taking a sledgehammer to the cake that is our economy.

Farm owners are among those concerned the changes could leave them short of staff. Credit: PA

So what do ministers say when confronted with this criticism?

Well, one told me the policy paper is precisely a month old, it has been "superceded" by "six further iterations", and it "is not where the policy discussion now stands".

Another added: "Even on the basis of that paper, the only change that immigrant workers would see in 2019, during the transition period of at least two years, is that they would have to register with us after three months - and that is something all workers already have to do in Germany".

The precise form of this registration hasn't been decided. But if that was the only new grit in the immigration wheel, business concerns could probably be classified as neurotic and overstated.

A number of industries rely heavily on migrant workers. Credit: PA

But of course that is not the end of the story.

The potential time limit on staying in the UK to work - two years for unskilled workers and between three and five years for those with skills - would come into effect even during the transition period. That would represent a very significant erosion of existing freedoms for both immigrant workers and companies.

Which of course is the whole point, but would be pointless if crude execution of the new approach significantly hobbled businesses' ability to plan and invest, for fear of not being able to get the people. The effect would be to to seriously impair the growth of the economy.

That is why I don't expect Theresa May and her team to turn ideas of this sort into actual policies for many weeks yet - because if they get it wrong, we'll all be poorer.