What next for Iraq once the Islamic State has gone?

Limiting civilian deaths is by far the greatest challenge faced by advancing Iraqi forces in Mosul.

The airstrike that killed more than 130 people cowering in basements 10 days ago is a major propaganda coup for the Islamic State.

The tragedy feeds the IS narrative that a mainly Shia Iraqi army is indifferent to the plight of the mainly Sunni population in the city.

The airstrike was on three neighbouring buildings being used by IS snipers as firing positions.

A destroyed car seen in western Mosul. Credit: PA

The Iraqi soldier who called in the jets did not know that dozens of civilians had taken to the cellars for safety.

I have been with the unit that asked for the airstrike. They are the most professional of Iraqi troops and, ironically, are the ones who have taken the most care not to kill civilians.

The losses experienced by the Iraqi Army in the taking of eastern Mosul were sufficient for a review, which resulted in more combat units being given the authority to call in airstrikes during the battle for western Mosul.

Friends and relatives bury their loved ones. Credit: AP

Obviously this presents a greater threat to civilians, who were initially advised to stay at home, rather than to flee the city, which most are now doing given the appalling level of destruction being wrought.

And what’s next for Iraq, once IS have been routed? As you drive towards Mosul you pass through villages that were liberated months ago, but remain deserted.

Scorch marks on most of the houses denote, not heavy fighting, but extensive looting by the Shia militias that make up a considerable portion of the advancing Iraqi force.

Federal Police Rapid Response Forces fire a rocket towards Islamic State positions. Credit: AP

For them, this offensive is more about asserting domination than bringing liberation to the Sunni Muslims, Christians and Kurds who suffered for two years under IS rule.

This month fourteen years ago Operation Iraqi Freedom – the toppling of Saddam Hussein – was well under way.

In Baghdad we wondered if regime change would turn Iraq into an Arab Yugoslavia post-Tito.

Would the removal of a monstrous strongman unleash sectarian and tribal urges and would tear the country apart? We now know the answer - yes.