Stay or Go? Cameron, that is, not the EU

I have just had an interesting conversation with a senior Conservative MP who is in touch with the current mood on the Tory backbenches.

And it turns on its head the perceived wisdom that David Cameron will have to quit as Prime Minister if the UK votes - against his wishes - to leave the EU in 10 weeks time.

The MP suggests the biggest danger for Mr Cameron, as leader of the party, is a narrow WIN for the Remain campaign.

That would stir up the most anger and resentment in the party - both among MPs in Westminster and with the grassroots in constituencies across the country.

Under the scenario of a narrow win for "Remain", the party - at least two thirds of whom are likely to have voted to leave the EU - will have missed out on their dream of quitting Europe - and will blame David Cameron for the result.

It would leave a particularly bitter taste after a campaign in which the Prime Minister has used government money and the government machine to make the case for "Remain".

Conversely, if the UK votes "Leave", many MPs now think David Cameron would be able to stay in Number 10 to, as it was put to me, "complete his legacy".

Remember, David Cameron has already pledged not to stand again at the 2020 General Election.

But he would have to ensure a senior Brexit minister was put in charge of the negotiations to leave the EU.

In other words, as long as David Cameron commits to quitting within the next 12 to 18 months and as long as he appoints a Leave campaigner - Michael Gove's name was suggested - as Foreign Secretary to lead the tough talks with the EU about the UK's exit, Mr Cameron may not have to quit as Prime Minister.

Which presents an interesting conundrum for Dave:

Win the referendum campaign and risk being thrown out by the party.

Lose the referendum campaign and get to stay on as PM.

And it will all become clear at some point on the morning of Friday June 24.