Brexit could lead to 'decade or more of uncertainty', Government report says
Leaving the EU could result in "up to a decade or more of uncertainty", a government report claims.
The official Whitehall analysis, entitled "The process for withdrawing from the European Union", warns that the complex negotiations required after an "out" vote could go beyond the two-year deadline.
If this happened, Britain could leave the EU without any protection over trade deals, the rights of UK citizens to live in Europe or for travellers to move freely about the continent, according to the white paper.
But those in the Leave campaign say the kinds of fears expressed in the white paper are overblown.
Boris Johnson, writing in the Telegraph this morning, called those fears "so wildly exaggerated as to be nonsense".
Writing about the Remain camp he said: "They want us to go to the polls in such a state of quivering apprehension that we do the bidding of the Euro-elites, and vote to stay in the European Union."
The rules for leaving the EU are set out under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, but it is something no country has ever done and the new government's report says there is a "great deal of uncertainty" about how it would work.
Discussing the complexity of leaving the union, the report says: "It is therefore probable that it would take an extended period to negotiate first our exit from the EU, secondly our future arrangements with the EU, and thirdly our trade deals with countries outside of the EU, on any terms that would be acceptable to the UK.
"In short, a vote to leave the EU would be the start, not the end, of a process. It could lead to up to a decade or more of uncertainty."
According to the paper, if Britain were to leave the EU with no replacement agreement in place, it would mean leaving "without any protection under EU law for the rights of UK business to trade on a preferential basis with Europe or the EU’s free trade agreement partners, UK citizens to live and work in Europe, or UK travellers to move about freely in Europe".
The report also says:
Uncertainty during the negotiating period could have an impact on financial markets, investment and the value of the pound, and as a consequence on the wider economy and jobs.
Britain would be constrained in making new trade deals with countries outside the EU while the negotiations take place, as they would want to see the new deal first.
There could be implications for the border and cross-border trade and co-operation between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The report points out that if Britain left the EU without securing an agreement on the new relationship, the UK's trade relations would be governed by World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
Under this arrangement, the EU would apply tariffs to UK goods, many of which of significant, particularly when compared to the zero tariff under the EU single market.
The report also warns of complex negotiations with all 161 WTO members, as current commitments are applied to the EU as a whole.
It says: "Until our schedule of commitments was updated, there could be questions surrounding our rights to access WTO members' markets, and our ability to enforce those rights."
An extension on the two-year period for leaving the Union set out in the treaty would require the agreement of all 27 remaining EU member states.