Cameron gets some of what he wanted from Europe, not all

  • Brexit

If European leaders agree the draft reforms to the UK's relationship with the EU that have been published today, David Cameron will have got much of what he wanted and promised.

But not all.

Importantly the four-year brake on welfare payments to migrants will only reduce those payments, not eliminate them altogether.

And the UK cannot impose the brake unilaterally. It requires EU approval - though that will almost certainly be forthcoming with near immediate effect (the day after a yes vote in the referendum).

Second it is not at all certain there will be treaty changes to make trebly sure the reforms will be binding forever.

There may be limited treaty changes, says the president of the EU Council, Donald Tusk. But equally there may not.

But maybe this is to pick European nits.

Because in the round most would say it would be uncharitable to characterise the reform package as nugatory - even if much that has been agreed seems technical, dry, impenetrable and wholly unsexy.

The following reforms are important:

  • there will be an attempt to prevent non EU migrants gaining or abusing the differences between national and European laws to settle their families in Britain;

  • there will be some - though probably not perfect - insurance for the UK that members of the euro won't gang up on us, to discriminate against us commercially and economically;

  • there is recognition that we are not on a path to "ever closer union" with the rest of the EU;

  • there will be some transfer of decision making power from Brussels to national parliaments (though as I said last night, the impact of the new "red card" for national parliaments should not be overstated);

  • the EU recognises its industrial and economic sclerosis and promises to become more competitive (yes, we've heard that one before).

Does this collectively represent a veritable European revolution?

Not on your nelly - as Tusk made explicit when saying the principles of the EU are intact.

But should it narrow the unstable cultural and economic gap between Britain and those across the Channel?

Yup, that looks plausible.

Which is presumably why David Cameron told me he would become a passionate unequivocal cheerleader for staying in the EU, if what's on the table today is definitely accepted in just over two weeks.