Trump claims that more Brit Muslims join ISIS than army - but is he right?

US presidential hopeful Donald Trump, who has accused the UK of disguising a "massive Muslim problem", has claimed that more British Muslims have joined ISIS than the armed forces.

He referred to a National Review article published last year citing other newspaper articles suggesting that army recruitment is down while estimates of the number of UK citizens joining ISIS are too conservative.

But are the claims correct?

  • How many UK citizens are said to have joined ISIS?

Official government estimates say that between 500 to 600 British citizens have joined Islamic State in Iraq or Syria, a figure backed up by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR).

But Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe claimed that there may be more with five extremists a week travelling overseas to fight for Islamic State. This would make the figures 50 percent higher than official estimates.

The UK's counter-terrorism chief for the Association of Chief Police Officers Sir Peter Fahy also warned ITV News that the actual number could be much higher than official estimates.

MP Khalid Mahmood, the Labour MP for Birmingham Perry Barr, also refuted official figures in August 2014 saying that there were 1,500 Brits who have joined the jihadist group.

Estimates suggest that between 500 and 1,500 British citizens have joined ISIS. Credit: PA

  • How does this compare to armed forces recruitment?

Trump cited 2013-14 figures taken from a government report when a redundancy programme was taking place to make £10.6 million savings to the military budget.

This will lead to the number of regular soldiers slimming down from 102,000 to 82,000 by 2020. However, the Ministry of Defence say that the numbers will be bolstered by reserve forces which have increased by 80% in the last 12 months.

The number of Muslims in the Army is only 0.54% compared with 4.4% in UK population.

But with a population of 194,570 this means that over 900 members of the armed forces are Muslim.

In the latest figures for 2014, released earlier this year, statistics showed there was a decrease in recruitment in the armed forces in 2014 by 2.8%.

However, the report shows that a total of 12,340 people joined regular forces which is more than 12 times the average estimate of Britons who joined ISIS in Iraq and Syria over the last three years.

Defence secretary Michael Fallon with British forces at RAF Akrotiri ahead of their mission against Islamic State. Credit: ITV News

However, with over 18,800 leaving in the same period - many older and more experienced - the level of expertise in the army may have decreased due to the recent redundancy drive.

And the report says that there is a 4% deficit in the number of fully trained personnel needed. More worryingly, the largest shortfall (at 6%) in the services was in the Royal Air Force, who are currently conducting air strikes on ISIS.

  • Was Trump right?

Maybe.

While there is a reduction in recruitment in the regular armed forces, the figures for last year alone far outweigh official and unofficial figures of the number of British citizens thought to have joined ISIS in the last three years.

Of these, approximately 0.5% of the total 194,570 armed forces personnel are identified as Muslim, an estimated 972 people.

If you agree with the official figure of UK jihadists, that means that there are more British Muslims in the UK forces than ISIS. If you believe in the other unofficial estimates, Trump is right.