Why Ed Miliband could be the Prime Minister with no Budget

Labour leader Ed Miliband out on the campaign trail. Credit: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

By Adam Smith: Westminster Producer

There has been much talk that the Scottish National Party, who launch their manifesto in Edinburgh today, could hold the balance of power in the Westminster Parliament after the election in 17 days time.

Scotland's First Minister SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, told the Guardian today, "With fixed-term parliaments, it gives parties in a minority-government situation ... huge ability to change the direction of a government without bringing a government down."

It looks like she might be right. To borrow a phrase from Ed Miliband: let me explain why.

It all comes down to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, a piece of legislation passed by the Coalition government back in 2011 which sets the date of each General Election at five-year intervals (previously it was up the Prime Minister to call an election whenever he or she felt like it).

An early General Election can only be called in limited circumstances, one of which is when a Government loses a "vote of no confidence" in the House of Commons - essentially a vote where MPs get the chance to say whether they support the current government or not.

Prior to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, if the government of the day lost any significant vote - particularly the vote on its Budget - then it would be assumed to be a vote of no confidence. The government would resign and an early General Election would be called.

Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond could change the direction of government. Credit: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire

Now, a vote of no confidence has to include these words: "This House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.” If MPs are not voting on these precise words, then it means nothing and an early election cannot be called.

After the election, if Labour end up with more seats than the Conservatives, but not a majority, then they will almost certainly have to rely on votes from the SNP to pass laws.

If the SNP object to something a Labour government wants to do, even if it's in a Budget, they could vote against it in the House of Commons and block key legislation.

But Labour would remain in government as long as the SNP supported them in any explicit vote of no confidence, which they almost certainly would in order to keep the Conservatives out of power; something Nicola Sturgeon has promised her voters she will do.

So we could have a situation where a minority Labour government couldn't get support for a Budget the SNP didn't like, but Ed Miliband would remain as Prime Minister for a full five years, safe from any Conservative attempts to dethrone him.

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act makes guessing the date of the next General Election simple; but it may make the five years in between a lot more complicated.