Internet rumours of coup in China

The rumours of a military coup in China continue on social media. So much so that on China's version of Twitter, Weibo, the word 'coup' has been censored. The latest rumour I have heard is that artillery was being moved to the capital from a nearby province.

But the Chinese versions of YouTube doesn't have any footage of troops on the streets or tanks in Tiananmen. One photo claiming to show a tank rolling down an avenue in the capital, turns out to look like an old image. If there was an armed revolt then surely, as in Syria and Libya, there would quickly be the hastily-shot mobile phone videos to confirm the chatter. So no 'Coup Tube' to back up the current and seemingly endless speculation.

There's no way of checking these rumours. Government sources are almost unheard of. Unlike Westminster or the White House there are no 'insiders' who will guide you on a story like this. China's mysterious leaders and their internal struggles are simply that - a mystery.

I blogged yesterday on the fact that the rumours reflect the fallout from a high-profile sacking, that of former Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai, who is accused of corruption and whose demise was announced in a short statement by the official news agency. With no more detail and no public statements from those involved, you can see how an information vacuum can lead to rabid rumour spreading.The coup suggestion seems to come from the theory that Bo) if the claims are true.

Another rumour claims Bo had ordered thousands of weapons and 50,000 rounds of ammunition to be delivered to Chongqing, before his sacking, the hint being that he was preparing for an armed takeover of the government.. Now it's said that the People's Armed Police have been ordered to go to Chongqing and seize Bo's arsenal.

I said in previous postings that this is the first time a high-level leadership scandal can be followed and commented on in real-time by the voracious Chinese bloggers and so the rumours are being repeated by hundreds of millions of fascinated, fact-starved citizens, or 'netizens' as they are known here.

How do we try to decipher what is really going on? One way is to study the front pages of the official newspapers and try to deduce who's up and who's down. Using that fairly unscientific method it would seem Premier Wen and President Hu are still in control. The latest front page of the English speaking China Daily shows Hu meeting the leaders of Taiwan's ruling party. The message, if there is one, is 'move along, nothing to see here' - it's business as usual. No mention of a coup, no denial either and this is where the problem lies. With a government system still unused to dealing with China's new high volume online voices there's no effective rumour control.

So when people finish work and hit their keyboards the rumours are bound to multiply, even more over the weekend. Who knows, by Sunday we may well have reports of street battles and leaders lynched from lamp posts but no footage to back those up.